{"id":"W2141537185","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.476741","title":"The Extreme Future Stock Returns Following Extreme Earnings Surprises","year":2003,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"SSRN Electronic Journal","topic":"Auditing, Earnings Management, Governance","field":"Business, Management and Accounting","cited_by":53,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":false,"ca_institutions":"University of British Columbia","funders":"","keywords":"Earnings; Stock (firearms); Post-earnings-announcement drift; Business; Economics; Financial economics; Financial system; Earnings response coefficient; Finance; Geography","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":["metaepi_narrow","sts","research_integrity"],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.004357018,0.0004182589,0.0003247034,0.0001912649,0.001935332,0.0009835148,0.0008924647,0.0001159525,0.0001697851],"category_scores_gemma":[0.00511445,0.0003209095,0.0003884435,0.0007418991,0.00007168488,0.001460858,0.000177679,0.002873531,0.0002734934],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0006011153,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0004588941,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.0001189741,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.001369519,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9945898,0.00008983433,0.0005627574,0.0004655189,0.0009151492,0.003376938],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9915209,0.0001084526,0.007724849,0.0004223327,0.000187256,0.00003622182],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_gemma":"not_applicable","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0001072937,0.0001144683,0.1317708,0.0000533831,0.0007649211,0.00009132542,0.0002649488,0.0001957563,0.0004999299,0.6357189,0.01358912,0.2168291],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0009383521,0.00003929824,0.007423382,0.00006615122,0.0001549789,0.0000778687,0.003759944,0.0001068243,0.00001366918,0.05532456,0.9315795,0.0005154238],"study_design_candidate":"not_applicable","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.7731693,0.01450189,0.1470044,0.007433988,0.004718633,0.0008524731,0.000001119611,0.0005183658,0.05179973],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.974478,0.001914072,0.00009070865,0.0006964728,0.003508144,0.00001633943,0.00000389145,0.0001055145,0.01918685],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.9179904,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.9999243,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.01130088383369162,"score_gpt":0.2047228408246156,"score_spread":0.193421956990924,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}