{"id":"W2142223988","doi":"10.3386/w20190","title":"Model Disagreement and Economic Outlook","year":2014,"lang":"en","type":"report","venue":"National Bureau of Economic Research","topic":"Financial Markets and Investment Strategies","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":10,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"University of Toronto; Swiss Finance Institute; Schweizerischer Nationalfonds zur Förderung der Wissenschaftlichen Forschung; National Science Foundation","keywords":"Economics; Econometrics","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":true,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.004021659,0.0003956508,0.0006738661,0.0004847455,0.0005584185,0.001800208,0.0006914707,0.001403845,0.002423555],"category_scores_gemma":[0.03313867,0.0002548992,0.0004179245,0.0004230225,0.000904458,0.00261899,0.001296648,0.001836718,0.0001511863],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.00101071,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0004494778,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.001786307,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.0009506593,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9987263,0.0006719441,0.00005724797,0.0001791594,0.0001830122,0.0001823326],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9828452,0.01182475,0.00315666,0.0008641612,0.0006664532,0.0006427574],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_gemma":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0006951682,0.0004309911,0.07381691,0.0001173309,0.0002348836,0.0008528018,0.001083107,0.5971683,0.002392424,0.3067386,0.002814333,0.0136553],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0001045651,0.0002035855,0.01477952,0.00002523588,0.00004973366,0.00013512,0.0005793291,0.7924456,0.0006183051,0.1899997,0.001014039,0.00004532095],"study_design_candidate":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9589416,0.0002675718,0.0280396,0.002299048,0.00003380858,0.00001746997,0.000136874,0.00003038002,0.01023361],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9989322,0.00004898178,0.0007064535,0.0000481137,0.00001195535,0.0000067551,0.00004448458,0.000004028572,0.000197093],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.004021659,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.02126884,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.4240967727753181,"score_gpt":0.452460528528654,"score_spread":0.02836375575333594,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}