{"id":"W2142627156","doi":"10.1111/ecin.12199","title":"RISK ASSESSMENT UNDER A NONLINEAR FISCAL POLICY RULE","year":2015,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Economic Inquiry","topic":"Fiscal Policies and Political Economy","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":7,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"Wilfrid Laurier University","funders":"","keywords":"Solvency; Insolvency; Economics; Fiscal policy; Debt; Nonlinear system; Macroeconomics; Monetary economics; Government debt; Bankruptcy; Government (linguistics); Finance; Market liquidity; Physics","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.003619408,0.0005280758,0.000797472,0.0005008524,0.0003609767,0.002173564,0.0007131994,0.001251866,0.001779287],"category_scores_gemma":[0.0156978,0.0002731021,0.0005379646,0.0002413432,0.001467902,0.001848166,0.001402784,0.001479424,0.0001953062],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.001037671,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0007015463,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.003527214,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.001233879,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9990379,0.0003497668,0.0000772375,0.0002129232,0.00018262,0.000139666],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9932201,0.003961448,0.001539326,0.0003688653,0.0005701404,0.0003401939],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0003615408,0.00006637654,0.01677233,0.00004992602,0.00008204636,0.0007939722,0.0001724164,0.8135961,0.002356514,0.1516115,0.0009079289,0.01322929],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00003398283,0.0000681703,0.003417904,0.00001049217,0.00002005345,0.0001010464,0.00007873563,0.930286,0.0005235221,0.06508831,0.0003465468,0.00002526473],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":"simulation_or_modeling","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.8511143,0.0002338568,0.1363394,0.001550782,0.00005198332,0.00005382703,0.000188887,0.00007392225,0.01039306],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9953614,0.0000906603,0.00296012,0.00004200107,0.00001937081,0.000009439555,0.00003642173,0.000006515781,0.001474196],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.003619408,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.01914144,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.06673528758368816,"score_gpt":0.3074056002102238,"score_spread":0.2406703126265357,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}