{"id":"W2144498375","doi":"10.3905/jai.2004.439656","title":"Precipitation Modeling and Contract Valuation","year":2004,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"The Journal of Alternative Investments","topic":"Insurance and Financial Risk Management","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":44,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"University of Toronto; York University","funders":"","keywords":"Valuation (finance); Econometrics; Business; Economics; Actuarial science; Accounting","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.0009441721,0.00006605188,0.0001469041,0.0001046235,0.00007600763,0.00002838284,0.0001212338,0.00001856959,0.000006667753],"category_scores_gemma":[0.0000902926,0.00005200925,0.00003584124,0.00006458037,0.00003049097,0.0003815823,0.00001981411,0.00009710593,0.00002636751],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.000101684,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.00001307483,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.0002002785,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.000007236485,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9993414,0.00002012528,0.0004152762,0.00006758509,0.00006373901,0.00009186542],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.999272,0.00002336032,0.0005335416,0.00007043361,0.00007237274,0.00002832576],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_gemma":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0001611253,0.0001680885,0.009650368,0.00001494509,0.000263471,0.000007883804,0.01136097,0.1384516,0.0001253358,0.8327034,0.00003954906,0.007053208],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.001547892,0.0002029001,0.04808735,0.00004529393,0.00002004429,0.000008511188,0.00014891,0.0186738,0.000285108,0.9305857,0.0003057687,0.00008867881],"study_design_candidate":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_consensus":"theoretical_or_conceptual","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9307696,0.001311687,0.06522952,0.0005386365,0.0003250399,0.0001305974,0.000005366436,0.000002456106,0.00168712],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9972501,0.0013472,0.0008280712,0.0004222766,0.0001123434,0.000002104923,7.867443e-7,0.000006469875,0.00003062052],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.1197778,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.2120876,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.06101368739895766,"score_gpt":0.2675784503832605,"score_spread":0.2065647629843028,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}