{"id":"W2144960162","doi":"10.1111/gcb.13142","title":"Model‐specification uncertainty in future forest pest outbreak","year":2015,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Global Change Biology","topic":"Forest Insect Ecology and Management","field":"Environmental Science","cited_by":45,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"Natural Resources Canada; Canadian Forest Service","funders":"","keywords":"Outbreak; Duration (music); Environmental science; Spruce budworm; Climate change; Spatial variability; Specification; Econometrics; Climatology; Geography; Statistics; PEST analysis; Ecology; Mathematics; Biology","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.006661768,0.000701983,0.0006625705,0.0005860028,0.0004494264,0.001367452,0.001133095,0.0009327498,0.0006574853],"category_scores_gemma":[0.01317318,0.0007178509,0.00134687,0.0005908529,0.0006199282,0.001431845,0.0007139161,0.00123322,0.00008967498],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.001601923,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.001541266,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.02906082,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.02172134,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9984105,0.0008705275,0.0001048225,0.0003200139,0.0001557718,0.0001383614],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9919499,0.006216773,0.000748126,0.0004020785,0.0005748171,0.0001082415],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0000288788,0.00001196235,0.01078191,0.00001535835,0.0000576513,0.00004204875,0.00003489366,0.9860161,0.0002543229,0.001045604,0.00009516368,0.001616146],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00001028802,0.00001657393,0.005735933,0.00001274362,0.00003176583,0.00001974805,0.00004307379,0.990642,0.000393768,0.00284925,0.0002220002,0.00002284727],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":"simulation_or_modeling","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9101793,0.000193371,0.08484763,0.0005520655,0.00002900652,0.00003895571,0.001095811,0.000226173,0.002837796],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9946501,0.00005700116,0.00447024,0.00004326237,0.000005915473,0.00002923509,0.0005179569,0.00002236417,0.0002039531],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.02906082,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.05778331,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.05714634551485265,"score_gpt":0.275590250232943,"score_spread":0.2184439047180904,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}