{"id":"W2148716749","doi":"10.1093/afraf/adv037","title":"Briefing: Why Goodluck Jonathan lost the Nigerian presidential election of 2015","year":2015,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"African Affairs","topic":"Global Political and Social Dynamics","field":"Social Sciences","cited_by":82,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"International Development Research Centre","funders":"","keywords":"Presidential election; Political science; General election; Law; Politics","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.0006094482,0.00009844814,0.0001637562,0.0000344765,0.0002808741,0.00007340014,0.0003422664,0.0001055427,0.00007453922],"category_scores_gemma":[0.0005735678,0.00007928333,0.00009821659,0.0004194502,0.0007469791,0.000154333,0.00006229776,0.0001270702,0.00007274011],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0001607559,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0003586,"about_ca_topic_candidate":true,"about_ca_topic_consensus":true,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.02467883,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.0232041,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9983329,0.0002881207,0.00020495,0.0001644491,0.0005876662,0.0004219274],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9991527,0.0001002297,0.0001056165,0.0001611029,0.0002119542,0.0002683622],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_gemma":"not_applicable","study_design_scores_codex":[0.00006013248,0.0001694761,0.002782051,0.00001014464,0.00006418466,0.000004974965,0.03994914,0.00003306324,0.00009340655,0.8158967,0.1398228,0.001113887],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0007087499,0.0003210652,0.007415568,0.00002490194,0.0001053096,0.000003808568,0.2089702,0.0002171147,0.0001841017,0.1876939,0.5938599,0.0004954507],"study_design_candidate":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"other","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.05856054,0.000154023,0.0003084935,0.02699575,0.0009740499,0.0003508939,0.00003297547,0.000106927,0.9125164],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9956039,0.00001489711,0.00004712172,0.0002080313,0.0004590766,0.000005121063,0.000003529519,0.000009558231,0.003648754],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":null,"teacher_disagreement_score":0.9370434,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.9946198,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.02187850501607326,"score_gpt":0.2918462058081431,"score_spread":0.2699677007920699,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}