{"id":"W2156899284","doi":"10.34989/sdp-2010-7","title":"Statistical Confidence Intervals for the Bank of Canada's Business Outlook Survey","year":2021,"lang":"en","type":"preprint","venue":"Econstor (Econstor)","topic":"Monetary Policy and Economic Impact","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":2,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"Bank of Canada","funders":"","keywords":"Confidence interval; Statistics; Population; Econometrics; Business cycle; Statistical hypothesis testing; Publication; Recession; Mathematics; Economics; Demography; Political science; Sociology","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":true,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":["metaepi_narrow","insufficient_payload"],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.002685327,0.0006501527,0.002044442,0.0002518861,0.000256608,0.0002370968,0.001190975,0.0004632895,0.004795484],"category_scores_gemma":[0.002561661,0.0006842904,0.0004078472,0.0001562667,0.000551976,0.0002118551,0.0005289587,0.0007243961,0.00007124041],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0006970684,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.002140722,"about_ca_topic_candidate":true,"about_ca_topic_consensus":true,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.5335521,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.4739822,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9952863,0.0001415997,0.002383156,0.001211676,0.00009052188,0.0008866856],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9933351,0.002826329,0.001807657,0.001530227,0.0002064578,0.0002941767],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0001240152,0.000128954,0.8971893,0.0006777329,0.001201823,0.00001719382,0.0004960925,0.005410894,0.000003032515,0.02171882,0.07267665,0.0003554819],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0009186595,0.00005969993,0.9641389,0.0002179609,0.00009171279,0.0000375273,0.0001611756,0.01505717,0.00007233367,0.004812892,0.01329221,0.001139807],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":"observational","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9058833,0.009498655,0.03186876,0.001673457,0.01003886,0.001434139,0.03232674,0.00004436033,0.007231727],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.994064,0.0005012776,0.001201738,0.0008142791,0.0004441683,0.0001760469,0.0006486792,0.00008580415,0.002064009],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.0881807,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.9995608,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.0737039607016519,"score_gpt":0.2522909873273951,"score_spread":0.1785870266257432,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}