{"id":"W2159261354","doi":"10.1111/risa.12474","title":"Risk Reduction of an Invasive Insect by Targeting Surveillance Efforts with the Assistance of a Phenology Model and International Maritime Shipping Routes and Schedules","year":2015,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Risk Analysis","topic":"Forest Insect Ecology and Management","field":"Environmental Science","cited_by":15,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"Natural Resources Canada; Canadian Forest Service","funders":"Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service; Canadian Food Inspection Agency","keywords":"Gypsy moth; Port (circuit theory); Lymantria dispar; Phenology; Population; Invasive species; Certificate; Engineering; Operations research; Computer science; Ecology; Larva; Biology; Demography","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":true,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":true,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.0007129306,0.0005839218,0.0003329983,0.0004430212,0.0002152934,0.0005410619,0.0005468089,0.0003297388,0.001140697],"category_scores_gemma":[0.001857696,0.000299923,0.0004781897,0.0002278588,0.0002012134,0.0005917357,0.0003363727,0.0003516487,0.0001118733],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.00114858,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.001598368,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.0216035,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.02230607,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9997317,0.00009094693,0.00001062625,0.00007663073,0.00005173537,0.00003833742],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.999172,0.0003474696,0.0002473816,0.00005323247,0.0001236255,0.000056266],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0000556049,0.00007233818,0.01205933,0.00001978855,0.00003316823,0.00002236798,0.00002905144,0.9747759,0.001422855,0.001070693,0.0002286219,0.01021031],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00001872129,0.00008600509,0.003498574,0.000004790596,0.00002383081,0.00001378714,0.0000229639,0.995152,0.0003501765,0.0005506413,0.000272884,0.000005640269],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":"simulation_or_modeling","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.7585391,0.0001402301,0.2306408,0.0005363367,0.0000365039,0.0002507452,0.0005074044,0.0005635072,0.008785363],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9438762,0.0000954922,0.05393941,0.00005031735,0.00001128699,0.0001321663,0.0001804432,0.00002052225,0.001694236],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.0216035,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.04295552,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.008592137961430137,"score_gpt":0.2105859006697167,"score_spread":0.2019937627082866,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}