{"id":"W2160819617","doi":"10.1257/mac.20130139","title":"Explaining the Evolution of Educational Attainment in the United States","year":2016,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"American Economic Journal Macroeconomics","topic":"Economic Growth and Productivity","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":19,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"Western University","funders":"Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada","keywords":"Graduation (instrument); Human capital; Educational attainment; Cohort; Demographic economics; Investment (military); Economics; Cohort effect; Quality (philosophy); Psychology; Political science; Economic growth; Statistics; Mathematics","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":true,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.0008166187,0.000230138,0.00028121,0.0009341096,0.0005006622,0.001471134,0.0004066578,0.0007036984,0.002556027],"category_scores_gemma":[0.00244602,0.0002499588,0.0004241724,0.001146194,0.0003370299,0.0005394591,0.0007628207,0.0007538656,0.0004515357],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.001659456,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0007182002,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.1314496,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.09996103,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9998428,0.00004604952,0.000007547621,0.00004051431,0.00001477295,0.00004838156],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9992956,0.0002483343,0.0002189763,0.00004246758,0.00009190834,0.0001026658],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0001223955,0.0001241388,0.7913126,0.00004777559,0.0001433959,0.0005170485,0.0008705774,0.1438385,0.000704385,0.02889575,0.007619316,0.02580419],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00006006774,0.00009619408,0.7009932,0.00008451656,0.0000821017,0.0001165493,0.0008818347,0.2658082,0.0003681954,0.02022791,0.01122091,0.00006033793],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":"observational","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9889379,0.0006495998,0.002518269,0.001740962,0.00002743406,0.000009196782,0.001480594,0.00005136337,0.004584725],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9972716,0.0002520923,0.0003625659,0.0001030832,0.00001496941,0.000005261847,0.0007018645,0.00001140493,0.001277092],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.1314496,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.2613689,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.01491550387163426,"score_gpt":0.2291369820204098,"score_spread":0.2142214781487755,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}