{"id":"W2160847191","doi":"10.1175/2008jcli2193.1","title":"Interdecadal Variation of ENSO Predictability in Multiple Models","year":2008,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Journal of Climate","topic":"Climate variability and models","field":"Environmental Science","cited_by":87,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"University of Northern British Columbia","funders":"Canadian Foundation for Climate and Atmospheric Sciences","keywords":"Predictability; Climatology; El Niño Southern Oscillation; Forecast skill; Sea surface temperature; Asymmetry; Variation (astronomy); Environmental science; Degree (music); Multivariate ENSO index; Southern oscillation; Geology; Statistics; Mathematics; Physics","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":true,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.002263586,0.000404297,0.0003907171,0.0004567041,0.0002621081,0.0008726569,0.0004556279,0.0002625673,0.00063624],"category_scores_gemma":[0.003436939,0.0002974104,0.0006285126,0.0004311401,0.0002437378,0.0005961162,0.0007365816,0.0005113527,0.00009505809],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0004938013,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.000333814,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.00549368,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.004846576,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9995628,0.0001634555,0.00003218878,0.000123102,0.000074269,0.00004417313],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9986585,0.0005870787,0.0002640561,0.0002272729,0.0001711171,0.0000919916],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0002354651,0.0001083457,0.2636303,0.00002747001,0.0006923656,0.0001666147,0.00008472065,0.7211438,0.002225228,0.002079458,0.0007342832,0.008871852],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00001874774,0.00006262767,0.05098072,0.000008677408,0.0000791885,0.00003403056,0.00003596233,0.9466603,0.0005963008,0.001020128,0.0004861034,0.00001714281],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":"simulation_or_modeling","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9946679,0.0001493216,0.004139967,0.00009392748,0.00002332174,0.000004239904,0.0002046859,0.00008829992,0.0006283089],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9993014,0.00003508326,0.0003428427,0.000005137929,0.000006963149,0.000003331795,0.0001902799,0.000009576805,0.0001054705],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.00549368,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.01197118,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.0320596624233646,"score_gpt":0.2485912362837577,"score_spread":0.2165315738603931,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}