{"id":"W2163612855","doi":"10.1177/0956797611407933","title":"Banking on a Bad Bet","year":2011,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Psychological Science","topic":"Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics","field":"Decision Sciences","cited_by":30,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"University of Waterloo","funders":"Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada","keywords":"Outcome (game theory); Psychology; Matching (statistics); Task (project management); Econometrics; Cognition; Social psychology; Statistics; Economics; Mathematical economics; Mathematics; Psychiatry","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":true,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":["insufficient_payload"],"consensus_categories":["insufficient_payload"],"category_scores_codex":[0.005345838,0.0001390822,0.0002164987,0.0002974793,0.0003835162,0.0003635067,0.002749034,0.00008457846,0.005248258],"category_scores_gemma":[0.002656417,0.00008030578,0.0001071678,0.001641876,0.0009002532,0.000410494,0.0002575899,0.0002091025,0.00552823],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.00004474282,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0000250481,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.00001006703,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.000003259402,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9965329,0.00007399392,0.0004950083,0.001132551,0.001289168,0.0004764171],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9979599,0.0004864577,0.0001736796,0.0009617857,0.0001566059,0.0002615365],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"design_other","study_design_gemma":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_scores_codex":[0.00004491805,0.0002985159,0.01094218,8.153414e-8,5.608891e-7,0.00002730752,0.0002661508,0.000005945074,0.0006727626,0.008338945,0.0020143,0.9773883],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0001947426,0.0005784575,0.3849636,0.00001119096,0.000002489588,0.00002866775,0.0001192906,0.0001867164,0.0005400539,0.6022471,0.01088646,0.0002412609],"study_design_candidate":"design_other","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.78078,0.00000619967,0.0006902246,0.0002329769,0.000916153,0.00006866256,0.000002562805,0.00005581879,0.2172474],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9936277,0.000002815859,0.00459612,0.001445209,0.00005222475,0.000005878539,1.337713e-7,0.000004150842,0.0002658183],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.977147,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.9956611,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.4918708286112028,"score_gpt":0.5132829181339926,"score_spread":0.02141208952278978,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}