{"id":"W2164204561","doi":"10.1111/j.1468-2354.2004.00120.x","title":"Learning, Large Deviations, And Recurrent Currency Crises*","year":2004,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"International Economic Review","topic":"Global Financial Crisis and Policies","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":10,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"Simon Fraser University","funders":"","keywords":"Exchange rate; Economics; Devaluation; Currency; Large deviations theory; Rational expectations; Econometrics; Mathematical economics; Foreign exchange market; Markov chain; Financial market; Mathematics; Finance; Monetary economics; Statistics","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":["insufficient_payload"],"consensus_categories":["insufficient_payload"],"category_scores_codex":[0.0003818928,0.0001291815,0.0003326068,0.00009203721,0.00008263888,0.0000667301,0.0002079054,0.00004136609,0.001015889],"category_scores_gemma":[0.0001719029,0.0001466824,0.0001199458,0.00004989457,0.00002459268,0.0002335988,0.00007624749,0.0001245234,0.002551187],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0002096115,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.00002974633,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.0001886485,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.00004188832,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9988612,0.00001009422,0.0006365316,0.0002870065,0.00002527003,0.0001799138],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9994214,0.00001678845,0.0003320256,0.000136879,0.0000278418,0.00006510807],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_gemma":"not_applicable","study_design_scores_codex":[0.000001694637,0.00003607036,0.0101338,0.0001019382,0.00002723645,7.552819e-7,0.00008352526,0.00002720282,1.744337e-7,0.9741808,0.01110351,0.004303275],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0002765071,0.00003393981,0.008014525,0.0002896697,0.000006218365,0.000008461709,0.00001001966,0.00005679373,0.000001685456,0.04175321,0.949389,0.000159935],"study_design_candidate":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"review","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.07958601,0.7309803,0.001668223,0.02018965,0.004018172,0.0006412655,0.0008841081,0.0000967003,0.1619356],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.5205626,0.4764645,0.0001166849,0.001792584,0.0002628422,0.00004473249,0.00008100243,0.00001483218,0.0006602072],"genre_candidate":"review","genre_consensus":null,"teacher_disagreement_score":0.9382855,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.9998973,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.03311706543631755,"score_gpt":0.2958402581703932,"score_spread":0.2627231927340757,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}