{"id":"W2164252939","doi":"10.1007/s10584-014-1191-3","title":"Near-term prediction of impact-relevant extreme temperature indices","year":2014,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Climatic Change","topic":"Climate variability and models","field":"Environmental Science","cited_by":13,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"Natural Environment Research Council; Sight Research UK; Met Office; Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, UK Government; Ministère de la Santé et des Services sociaux","keywords":"Predictability; Climatology; Forcing (mathematics); Environmental science; Mediterranean climate; Forecast skill; Term (time); Greenhouse gas; Mean radiant temperature; Work (physics); Climate change; Statistics; Mathematics; Geography; Geology","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":true,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.0008207799,0.0002586088,0.0003137785,0.0002526076,0.0001396751,0.0005180234,0.000370537,0.0004707477,0.0006435058],"category_scores_gemma":[0.002854278,0.0001585169,0.0003356063,0.0002317374,0.0001595353,0.0005436948,0.0003638009,0.000473429,0.0001468414],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0003079285,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0003819606,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.009349802,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.009074458,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9998556,0.00003911884,0.00001092852,0.00004991824,0.00002268735,0.00002169457],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9992079,0.0003931685,0.0001166169,0.00008600181,0.0001209498,0.00007546604],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0001150978,0.00006478916,0.1166051,0.0000272684,0.00009563957,0.00009095494,0.00006433808,0.8671735,0.003070038,0.0007303825,0.0005461464,0.01141681],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.000008517114,0.00005100535,0.09029444,0.000008102562,0.00001211947,0.00002569398,0.00002864273,0.9070526,0.00135257,0.0008556501,0.000297449,0.00001320478],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":"simulation_or_modeling","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9864114,0.0000805517,0.01096897,0.0001000379,0.00002354494,0.000009668937,0.0003530066,0.0001557148,0.001897164],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9985292,0.00002009258,0.0009691195,0.000007717494,0.000004575156,0.00000300842,0.0003096999,0.000008981268,0.0001477045],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.009349802,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.01859075,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.05615856274493377,"score_gpt":0.2623373548947894,"score_spread":0.2061787921498557,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}