{"id":"W2171494552","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2221527","title":"Economic Experts vs. Average Americans","year":2013,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"SSRN Electronic Journal","topic":"Economic Theory and Institutions","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":14,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":false,"ca_institutions":"Kellogg's (Canada)","funders":"","keywords":"Economics; Actuarial science; Econometrics; Political science; Mathematics; Statistics","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":["insufficient_payload"],"consensus_categories":["insufficient_payload"],"category_scores_codex":[0.0008081916,0.000175993,0.0003405251,0.0001976119,0.0003148957,0.0001480954,0.0003812175,0.00008013207,0.003397644],"category_scores_gemma":[0.00003423979,0.0001968416,0.0001956955,0.00006990426,0.0001090846,0.0007957486,0.00003978524,0.0007486508,0.008049519],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.001524493,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0004268013,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.0005906816,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.0002866978,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9973672,0.00002206763,0.0006153334,0.0003026098,0.00001654732,0.001676265],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.999196,0.00003062443,0.0003477928,0.0002770564,0.00001520285,0.000133346],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_gemma":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_scores_codex":[0.000007827679,0.000033551,0.004901548,0.000001244443,0.0000954358,7.600181e-7,0.0001467916,0.0003021944,0.00001466951,0.9907492,0.001237108,0.002509609],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.000494372,0.0001505265,0.001340439,0.000004609533,0.000003998774,0.0001918162,0.0006224767,0.0005635955,0.00002431588,0.9263435,0.06996001,0.0003003406],"study_design_candidate":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_consensus":"theoretical_or_conceptual","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.8557261,0.00347991,0.02280939,0.002643615,0.001312933,0.00024341,0.00003335909,0.00006936423,0.113682],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9881333,0.003675483,0.0001257226,0.0005389817,0.0004482308,0.00002722151,0.000005282574,0.00002752313,0.007018237],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.1324073,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.9975134,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.01158424313342602,"score_gpt":0.2039382191602973,"score_spread":0.1923539760268713,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}