{"id":"W2171494552","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2221527","title":"Economic Experts vs. Average Americans","year":2013,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"SSRN Electronic Journal","topic":"Economic Theory and Institutions","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":14,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":false,"ca_institutions":"Kellogg's (Canada)","funders":"","keywords":"Economics; Actuarial science; Econometrics; Political science; Mathematics; Statistics","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.001494921,0.0002674538,0.0006347026,0.002378081,0.0006794834,0.002145934,0.0003494828,0.0008599681,0.02369703],"category_scores_gemma":[0.01022621,0.0001270316,0.0002466393,0.001316272,0.0007252503,0.002064094,0.001012169,0.001053513,0.002331708],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0002605466,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0001902547,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.002942813,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.004353242,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9990846,0.0002039281,0.00003756076,0.0001384208,0.0001251845,0.0004103146],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9900966,0.005631117,0.001731453,0.0003007824,0.0005900873,0.001649855],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0100146,0.001865996,0.702108,0.0006496394,0.0007656281,0.001988418,0.009443706,0.003313395,0.002764328,0.07938268,0.04261642,0.1450872],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0007394528,0.001177039,0.857852,0.0005477596,0.001143867,0.001728727,0.03859362,0.005291735,0.001914734,0.05327532,0.03760165,0.000134146],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":"observational","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9432329,0.001262629,0.0005450338,0.002053572,0.0001797046,0.0000183884,0.0007856754,0.00001943948,0.05190262],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9935867,0.0004388992,0.000062247,0.000593006,0.0001554374,0.000007931499,0.0002203567,0.000007799988,0.004927608],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.02369703,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.07927442,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.01158424313342602,"score_gpt":0.2039382191602973,"score_spread":0.1923539760268713,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}