{"id":"W2183806181","doi":"10.1016/j.euroecorev.2019.103342","title":"Export decision under risk","year":2019,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"European Economic Review","topic":"Global trade and economics","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":47,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":false,"ca_institutions":"Université Laval","funders":"Harvard Kennedy School; Agence Nationale de la Recherche","keywords":"Margin (machine learning); Volatility (finance); Economics; Destinations; Monetary economics; Value (mathematics); International economics; Financial economics","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.001603902,0.0002347252,0.0005906145,0.0004541877,0.0002497085,0.002147753,0.0002040445,0.001500989,0.008703614],"category_scores_gemma":[0.004810527,0.00009897825,0.0003432707,0.0004194897,0.0008726004,0.001584235,0.00044013,0.001310403,0.001022075],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.000864397,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0006963707,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.001568113,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.00121906,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9995778,0.0001577369,0.00002197243,0.00006299978,0.00009516621,0.0000843569],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9983005,0.0008987527,0.0002682218,0.00008172169,0.0002965846,0.0001542433],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0009633015,0.0001962797,0.01169217,0.0002554227,0.0001429377,0.0009319642,0.0002417517,0.02676768,0.0009056636,0.7590728,0.09225629,0.1065737],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0001120201,0.0002366243,0.02387293,0.0003353968,0.0001188837,0.0005201221,0.0006080231,0.0404075,0.000699483,0.8112239,0.1218078,0.00005732329],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"other","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.4013093,0.0540555,0.01945681,0.085807,0.002239521,0.000058971,0.00163397,0.000141725,0.4352972],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9418755,0.01292315,0.0009193678,0.001400376,0.001009368,0.00001146121,0.0002826536,0.00003740698,0.04154059],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":null,"teacher_disagreement_score":0.008703614,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.02911651,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.06342582492404834,"score_gpt":0.2304066769800991,"score_spread":0.1669808520560507,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}