{"id":"W2187826436","doi":"10.1016/j.electstud.2015.11.010","title":"The British general election: Synthetic forecasts","year":2015,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Electoral Studies","topic":"Electoral Systems and Political Participation","field":"Social Sciences","cited_by":19,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":false,"ca_institutions":"McGill University; Université de Montréal","funders":"","keywords":"CONTEST; Presidential election; Context (archaeology); General election; Political science; Public opinion; History; Politics; Law","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.002607542,0.0002754878,0.0004411381,0.0009577018,0.0006029624,0.001445838,0.0005583189,0.0008445559,0.005802554],"category_scores_gemma":[0.02064326,0.0003390303,0.0002821804,0.002272934,0.0003881479,0.000758093,0.0004817672,0.0008622808,0.001277593],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.001967392,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0009705908,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.178259,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.2078974,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9986287,0.0009710558,0.00004248054,0.0001130324,0.0001720915,0.00007256583],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.991868,0.005425764,0.0003342246,0.0006485347,0.001445412,0.0002781014],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.001622271,0.0001350469,0.05060611,0.0002976313,0.0001882067,0.0002145294,0.001100823,0.7632829,0.0005316751,0.03490701,0.1067695,0.0403442],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0002102963,0.0001126404,0.05499462,0.00009847951,0.00005460023,0.00008145542,0.001029105,0.882716,0.0005270161,0.0150952,0.04498395,0.00009664606],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":"simulation_or_modeling","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9259416,0.001005625,0.01347759,0.002434351,0.0003620674,0.00008564065,0.03158419,0.0005365036,0.02457247],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9720544,0.0002485639,0.002561944,0.00005878907,0.00007539241,0.00004985007,0.0197466,0.0000980987,0.005106256],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.178259,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.3544428,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.1279759146736838,"score_gpt":0.39558219403436,"score_spread":0.2676062793606762,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}