{"id":"W2188112217","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2663932","title":"A Credibility-Based Yield Forecasting Model for Crop Reinsurance Pricing and Weather Risk Management","year":2015,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"SSRN Electronic Journal","topic":"Agricultural risk and resilience","field":"Agricultural and Biological Sciences","cited_by":11,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":false,"ca_institutions":"University of Manitoba; Health Sciences Centre; University of Waterloo","funders":"","keywords":"Reinsurance; Credibility; Crop insurance; Yield (engineering); Risk management; Econometrics; Economics; Business; Actuarial science; Geography; Agriculture; Finance","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.002052962,0.0007767854,0.001540794,0.0007519148,0.0005188645,0.001756307,0.002252478,0.002784327,0.004108794],"category_scores_gemma":[0.007092807,0.0006640437,0.0008177263,0.0008140687,0.0006382746,0.001764115,0.00105626,0.002450627,0.000466709],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.00142793,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.001741716,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.02398935,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.01060168,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9995475,0.000130936,0.00003031337,0.0001314063,0.00008403309,0.00007581765],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9972505,0.001818122,0.0002730573,0.00007444554,0.0004525865,0.0001312216],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.00002746032,0.00001543786,0.0003913026,0.00001129157,0.00001249723,0.00003797809,0.00001457101,0.9900081,0.000188897,0.004428749,0.0003639293,0.004499691],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.000001560944,0.000002448383,0.00003000512,0.000001081946,0.000002129152,0.000002514918,9.926903e-7,0.9993291,0.00001728772,0.000582152,0.00002896515,0.000001927232],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":"simulation_or_modeling","genre_codex":"methods","genre_gemma":"methods","genre_scores_codex":[0.127255,0.0007901016,0.8614866,0.001811001,0.000233199,0.00007367854,0.0005784411,0.0005984242,0.007173586],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9722371,0.0003265809,0.02178245,0.0000884738,0.00009405035,0.00006328149,0.0002711339,0.00005030073,0.005086744],"genre_candidate":"methods","genre_consensus":"methods","teacher_disagreement_score":0.02398935,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.04769945,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.03410609691050001,"score_gpt":0.2272230117653427,"score_spread":0.1931169148548427,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}