{"id":"W2196991416","doi":"","title":"Do Canadian Business Cycle Peaks Predict Federal Election Calls","year":2011,"lang":"en","type":"preprint","venue":"RePEc: Research Papers in Economics","topic":"Electoral Systems and Political Participation","field":"Social Sciences","cited_by":4,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"","keywords":"Business cycle; Simultaneity; Democracy; Politics; Causality (physics); Federal election; Political science; Political economy; Control (management); Economics; Keynesian economics; Law; Management","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":true,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.001335798,0.0001794975,0.000507622,0.002185852,0.001921166,0.002605803,0.0007758944,0.0005877278,0.01247837],"category_scores_gemma":[0.0144311,0.0002585763,0.0003502066,0.003539618,0.000694075,0.0007566693,0.0007442772,0.000895149,0.001075595],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.01618955,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.01632576,"about_ca_topic_candidate":true,"about_ca_topic_consensus":true,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.9760131,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.9877999,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9988976,0.00005573397,0.0000301631,0.0001782622,0.0003460494,0.0004922178],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9919235,0.001685606,0.001741329,0.0006682275,0.002862239,0.00111912],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0003116055,0.000034859,0.9301108,0.00006033604,0.00009660042,0.00009826887,0.001347717,0.00172129,0.0004547258,0.01245349,0.0249493,0.02836096],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00001248842,0.000008559557,0.9772475,0.00002539399,0.00002391,0.00001932568,0.0009914963,0.002001706,0.0002998719,0.0009463373,0.01839323,0.00003000239],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":"observational","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9251274,0.001096062,0.0009590603,0.003682007,0.00006740169,0.00003589457,0.0143589,0.0001413155,0.05453195],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9933885,0.0001992242,0.0001183471,0.0001098759,0.00001517722,0.000005943069,0.002925488,0.00002318329,0.003214322],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.02398694,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.117464,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.06185275007768509,"score_gpt":0.3621800296036709,"score_spread":0.3003272795259858,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}