{"id":"W2204567456","doi":"10.34989/swp-2012-37","title":"Forecasting Inflation and the Inflation Risk Premiums Using Nominal Yields","year":2021,"lang":"en","type":"preprint","venue":"Econstor (Econstor)","topic":"Monetary Policy and Economic Impact","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":3,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"Bank of Canada","funders":"","keywords":"Inflation (cosmology); Economics; Risk premium; Relative price; Econometrics; Monetary economics; Physics","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":["metaepi_narrow","insufficient_payload"],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.002312762,0.000599489,0.001295407,0.0004607329,0.0005734443,0.000575321,0.0003979154,0.0007194086,0.001018998],"category_scores_gemma":[0.0007638989,0.0006418165,0.0004625478,0.0001364316,0.0004998541,0.0007214106,0.0005720834,0.001289,0.0001171375],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0005208359,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0001910241,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.004715496,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.0004805941,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9961939,0.0001571463,0.001853938,0.001109836,0.00006184371,0.0006232635],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9957528,0.0005751328,0.002492704,0.0009305282,0.00004521212,0.0002036061],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.00009038116,0.00002982851,0.9698454,0.0001362057,0.0003875236,0.000005904829,0.002364363,0.02149272,0.000005101033,0.004472028,0.0002910942,0.0008794558],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.002425332,0.00004427254,0.2269375,0.0002408065,0.0001900494,0.0001589727,0.0003162588,0.7516139,0.0000349476,0.01441616,0.002468165,0.001153562],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9740862,0.00520204,0.002747447,0.0003178587,0.00257229,0.0007918726,0.0005170679,0.00006268388,0.01370258],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9948338,0.0005810146,0.002585883,0.0003072952,0.001110512,0.00006182282,0.000139148,0.00007043631,0.0003100528],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.7429078,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.9998942,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.07156908466284428,"score_gpt":0.2350544019948436,"score_spread":0.1634853173319993,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}