{"id":"W2209496075","doi":"10.34989/swp-2012-40","title":"The Effects of Oil Price Uncertainty on the Macroeconomy","year":2021,"lang":"en","type":"preprint","venue":"Econstor (Econstor)","topic":"Market Dynamics and Volatility","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":16,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"Bank of Canada","funders":"","keywords":"Economics; Oil price; Volatility (finance); Econometrics; Stochastic volatility; Financial economics; Monetary economics","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":["metaepi_narrow","insufficient_payload"],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.002703867,0.0006849478,0.001389052,0.000224776,0.0005499976,0.0003803825,0.0015329,0.0005631804,0.001604163],"category_scores_gemma":[0.001583076,0.0005564321,0.0009026774,0.00022856,0.0007424447,0.000123144,0.0009432249,0.001518239,0.0001723043],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0006275913,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0004806756,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.00054977,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.0004610764,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9957622,0.0002460059,0.001813655,0.001323287,0.0001167661,0.0007381435],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9913684,0.003623792,0.002039143,0.00262159,0.0001551251,0.0001919579],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"not_applicable","study_design_scores_codex":[0.00009221399,0.0003485116,0.8070875,0.001164574,0.001093952,0.00002218851,0.0006712485,0.0001650239,0.00001257604,0.179129,0.006620318,0.003592803],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.003871499,0.0005573426,0.3699338,0.002133332,0.0002938311,0.00006424159,0.001090599,0.06220128,0.0004941798,0.1091303,0.4451435,0.005086147],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.8405198,0.007451189,0.0001713419,0.001433527,0.006451945,0.0006277012,0.0004903197,0.00005566209,0.1427985],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9900887,0.002723401,0.000189611,0.0006094363,0.0003574991,0.0003722599,0.00006818819,0.00008109249,0.005509802],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.4385231,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.9996887,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.01257932998211704,"score_gpt":0.2110262543607387,"score_spread":0.1984469243786217,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}