{"id":"W2223417509","doi":"","title":"Irving Fisher and Financial Economics: The Equity Premium Puzzle, The Predictability of Stock Prices, and Intertemporal Allocation Under Risk","year":2007,"lang":"en","type":"book-chapter","venue":"RePEc: Research Papers in Economics","topic":"Financial Markets and Investment Strategies","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":0,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"Brock University","funders":"","keywords":"Economics; Stock market crash; Equity premium puzzle; Stock market; Financial economics; Crash; Stock (firearms); Risk premium; History","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.0007824998,0.0007130902,0.0005015212,0.002022474,0.001125035,0.002854592,0.0006189838,0.00253073,0.003787332],"category_scores_gemma":[0.004423315,0.0004750553,0.0003116398,0.002155568,0.003021334,0.005357253,0.0006344852,0.003874599,0.001025],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.002182816,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.001793509,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.01018067,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.01428565,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9997242,0.00005895065,0.00001258141,0.00004872461,0.0001321684,0.00002331424],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9980589,0.001428493,0.0001241438,0.0000605587,0.0002353285,0.00009266749],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"not_applicable","study_design_gemma":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_scores_codex":[0.00003436191,0.00004165093,0.001398887,0.0001250549,0.0000183774,0.00008753676,0.0003089671,0.001077058,0.0001011381,0.3041404,0.6235421,0.06912455],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00002241866,0.00002054773,0.004756406,0.0006516487,0.00001680466,0.0001472382,0.0002213831,0.001631503,0.00008839885,0.6333037,0.3591011,0.0000388776],"study_design_candidate":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"review","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.005104971,0.5420399,0.003307959,0.3599553,0.008348225,0.00001124662,0.0001894111,0.00006380714,0.08097921],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.1627511,0.5483142,0.004727696,0.0694628,0.05504465,0.0000668183,0.000306257,0.0001424912,0.1591841],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":null,"teacher_disagreement_score":0.01018067,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.02024287,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.06622875431709477,"score_gpt":0.2848874142256633,"score_spread":0.2186586599085685,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}