{"id":"W22282666","doi":"10.15173/esr.v12i1.452","title":"Backwardation in Energy Future Markets: Metallgesellschaft Revisited","year":2003,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Energy Studies Review","topic":"Capital Investment and Risk Analysis","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":3,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"McMaster University","funders":"","keywords":"Normal backwardation; Futures contract; Margin (machine learning); Convenience yield; Contango; Economics; Set (abstract data type); Financial economics; Econometrics; Spot contract; Actuarial science; Computer science","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":true,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":["insufficient_payload"],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.0007246971,0.0002246607,0.0009751575,0.0002377356,0.00007945239,0.00002084803,0.0001431562,0.00006679591,0.001152615],"category_scores_gemma":[0.0001903767,0.0002033962,0.0002849828,0.000933683,0.00004388006,0.0001766613,0.00004847287,0.00007913163,0.0001518367],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0001122144,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.000008145524,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.00007912795,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.0001063645,"domain_scores_codex":[0.998315,0.0001055457,0.0008364626,0.0004381571,0.00005271454,0.0002520913],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.99915,0.00004776754,0.0003321211,0.0003644086,0.00004943534,0.00005624617],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_gemma":"not_applicable","study_design_scores_codex":[0.000002111644,0.00004563446,0.0004247877,0.00027905,0.0003150474,0.000005504469,0.0000388864,0.000007755856,6.233083e-7,0.9724692,0.02256291,0.003848473],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0001927408,0.00001496979,0.0003143974,0.0002684743,0.00005818659,0.00000201598,0.00006775181,0.00007745903,0.0000137333,0.02408137,0.9746596,0.0002493551],"study_design_candidate":"not_applicable","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"review","genre_gemma":"review","genre_scores_codex":[0.0002153888,0.9718126,0.0001042052,0.001442738,0.0002720755,0.00007179307,0.00001161178,0.00001959439,0.02605],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.008567022,0.9821199,0.0003375496,0.002951784,0.0001208999,0.00007389107,0.00005086897,0.00001948733,0.005758638],"genre_candidate":"review","genre_consensus":"review","teacher_disagreement_score":0.9520966,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.9997604,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.03451742351439951,"score_gpt":0.253919407587136,"score_spread":0.2194019840727365,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}