{"id":"W2235106802","doi":"","title":"Interest Rate Forecasts: A Pathology","year":2008,"lang":"en","type":"preprint","venue":"RePEc: Research Papers in Economics","topic":"Monetary Policy and Economic Impact","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":34,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"","keywords":"Inflation (cosmology); Ex-ante; Economics; Interest rate; Quarter (Canadian coin); Replicate; Econometrics; Yield (engineering); Actuarial science; Monetary economics; Macroeconomics; Statistics; Geography","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":true,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.001901859,0.0006565214,0.0003863631,0.003465116,0.0005966173,0.00480253,0.0008492611,0.00174903,0.01325015],"category_scores_gemma":[0.01207591,0.0005032005,0.0004683326,0.001821851,0.001701234,0.005526644,0.001337172,0.002517891,0.01396315],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.001119962,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0009437326,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.001574806,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.0006064686,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9990215,0.0001838635,0.00007728531,0.0002437108,0.0004258539,0.00004770864],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9953089,0.001869449,0.0005936493,0.001020611,0.001040721,0.000166772],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"design_other","study_design_gemma":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0001004802,0.0000653906,0.003393034,0.0002534507,0.00004018376,0.0003875342,0.0005214172,0.007044105,0.002138976,0.3766716,0.1536985,0.4556854],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00002162081,0.00006275759,0.003399024,0.0004397581,0.00002603172,0.001368304,0.0002158703,0.01205363,0.001830972,0.3290359,0.6514814,0.00006454345],"study_design_candidate":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"other","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.0224954,0.1402861,0.3648065,0.07109275,0.01763537,0.0001199888,0.00309738,0.003742765,0.3767239],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.4527541,0.1327533,0.1407908,0.007010637,0.04236528,0.0001716519,0.004006598,0.001022113,0.2191255],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":null,"teacher_disagreement_score":0.01325015,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.04432613,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.1718490462507485,"score_gpt":0.3131527299499803,"score_spread":0.1413036836992318,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}