{"id":"W224672404","doi":"","title":"How Central Banks Learn the True Model of the Economy","year":2014,"lang":"en","type":"preprint","venue":"RePEc: Research Papers in Economics","topic":"Monetary Policy and Economic Impact","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":0,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"HEC Montréal","funders":"","keywords":"Volatility (finance); Economics; Monetary policy; Affect (linguistics); Central bank; Ask price; Sample (material); Monetary economics; Econometrics; Macroeconomics; Economy","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.007729194,0.0005624367,0.0009367704,0.0005810063,0.0005188086,0.004588241,0.0007256877,0.002242338,0.003127073],"category_scores_gemma":[0.08747862,0.0008518955,0.0004315056,0.0005853304,0.001388156,0.006444364,0.001314894,0.003057434,0.0006192969],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.001376895,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.002002293,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.003691053,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.001467237,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9977109,0.001145267,0.00009904016,0.0005286428,0.0002864636,0.0002295007],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9517279,0.0383322,0.004860009,0.002640658,0.00177623,0.0006628616],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_gemma":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_scores_codex":[0.001722995,0.000370912,0.0738824,0.000295934,0.000557163,0.0004036392,0.000999147,0.6583212,0.007555286,0.167274,0.006820199,0.08179709],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0001473889,0.0001050633,0.01347482,0.00007644357,0.00008416318,0.0001678928,0.0002646896,0.7611579,0.003365614,0.2197603,0.001324106,0.00007160746],"study_design_candidate":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.8401089,0.001265696,0.1305442,0.01426986,0.0001922819,0.00006865391,0.0005391892,0.0004216672,0.01258952],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9938924,0.0005032371,0.004283602,0.0003162257,0.00006364904,0.00001999569,0.0001288315,0.00002822063,0.0007638255],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.007729194,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.04087633,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.09258839336003215,"score_gpt":0.2688722148097474,"score_spread":0.1762838214497153,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}