{"id":"W2248554001","doi":"10.17016/ifdp.2003.760","title":"The Present-Value Model of the Current Account Has Been Rejected: Round Up the Usual Suspects","year":2003,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"International Finance Discussion Paper","topic":"Monetary Policy and Economic Impact","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":3,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"","keywords":"Economics; Econometrics; Value (mathematics); Interest rate; Imperfect; Real interest rate; Current account; Capital (architecture); Monte Carlo method; Macroeconomics; Statistics; Mathematics; Exchange rate; Geography","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":true,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.0005994498,0.0001789319,0.0002113091,0.0000524717,0.0004709556,0.000160892,0.0008797333,0.00006077797,0.0002788739],"category_scores_gemma":[0.0002888866,0.00008085272,0.0002269958,0.000117721,0.0002172907,0.0003845,0.0001434234,0.0002958273,0.0001362778],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0001360345,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.00006999703,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.0002268499,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.00008238783,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9985515,0.00004781909,0.0006533397,0.0003225315,0.000120237,0.000304543],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9987476,0.0001151164,0.0004760115,0.0005930266,0.0000329951,0.0000351981],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_gemma":"not_applicable","study_design_scores_codex":[0.00006073515,0.0001328415,0.01467506,0.000009255978,0.0001099331,4.177459e-7,0.001214527,0.04606522,0.0000457659,0.9026865,0.02840383,0.006595905],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0005089946,0.00001840628,0.05402045,0.00003891783,0.000008229438,0.000004583779,0.00008909602,0.08437548,0.0002540579,0.138768,0.721704,0.0002098011],"study_design_candidate":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.8951644,0.004395338,0.0009365279,0.04855769,0.007226321,0.0007217642,0.0006313692,0.00002663532,0.04233995],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9866604,0.0007553171,0.00003658908,0.000373426,0.000189819,0.00004231459,0.000009445188,0.00001869498,0.01191397],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.7639186,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.3622257,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.07043962920525201,"score_gpt":0.2680785491526897,"score_spread":0.1976389199474377,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}