{"id":"W2263292572","doi":"10.2469/faj.v72.n2.4","title":"It’s Time to Retire Ruin (Probabilities)","year":2016,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Financial Analysts Journal","topic":"Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management","field":"Social Sciences","cited_by":23,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"York University","funders":"","keywords":"Longevity; Longevity risk; Portfolio; Actuarial science; Metric (unit); Pension; Economics; Path (computing); Operations management; Computer science; Finance; Gerontology; Medicine","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.003743944,0.0004400436,0.0003794319,0.001005446,0.001821076,0.00459236,0.0007693769,0.002146361,0.01508018],"category_scores_gemma":[0.03153711,0.0003162409,0.0007161215,0.0009297783,0.003075567,0.006395704,0.001558515,0.003510249,0.003000702],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.001273885,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0008784964,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.002706412,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.002922785,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9982168,0.0007678812,0.000123387,0.0002737192,0.0003737963,0.0002444265],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9879425,0.006368983,0.002214968,0.0008636439,0.001487547,0.001122314],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_gemma":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0004184277,0.0001840275,0.04139353,0.0002909164,0.000160288,0.001145376,0.006941124,0.00714587,0.001091203,0.4702938,0.14612,0.3248154],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00004501435,0.000492607,0.03374286,0.0006524796,0.0001159569,0.002977422,0.006315548,0.009958828,0.001418455,0.5390906,0.4049809,0.0002093644],"study_design_candidate":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_consensus":"theoretical_or_conceptual","genre_codex":"other","genre_gemma":"commentary","genre_scores_codex":[0.1515388,0.01517789,0.2059439,0.307512,0.007870154,0.0001860493,0.002203629,0.001374102,0.3081934],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9246429,0.004467334,0.01849163,0.009037103,0.002186952,0.0001109811,0.0003204649,0.0002001992,0.04054251],"genre_candidate":"commentary","genre_consensus":null,"teacher_disagreement_score":0.01508018,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.05044824,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.01313880308378725,"score_gpt":0.2772264808653976,"score_spread":0.2640876777816104,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}