{"id":"W2264598511","doi":"","title":"Nowcasting: Trust the Purchasing Managers’ Index or wait for the flash GDP estimate?","year":2012,"lang":"en","type":"preprint","venue":"RePEc: Research Papers in Economics","topic":"Italy: Economic History and Contemporary Issues","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":5,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"","keywords":"Nowcasting; Real gross domestic product; Quarter (Canadian coin); Index (typography); Flash (photography); Econometrics; GDP deflator; Purchasing; Economics; Computer science; Geography; Operations management; Meteorology","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":true,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":["metaepi_narrow"],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.006725743,0.000611896,0.001155459,0.0006202907,0.001016905,0.0006638292,0.002336907,0.0006319578,0.000621909],"category_scores_gemma":[0.001028691,0.0005000748,0.0005260566,0.0002070372,0.0007626903,0.0003965056,0.001341852,0.002091211,0.0002617512],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.001388973,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0003955282,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.0003536388,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.0005549469,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9950757,0.000145218,0.001751555,0.001454356,0.00009715835,0.001476028],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9945993,0.001938749,0.0009443664,0.002210744,0.00008156581,0.0002252887],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"design_other","study_design_gemma":"not_applicable","study_design_scores_codex":[0.002860455,0.001255471,0.1433907,0.002344612,0.003257491,0.0001253058,0.02445675,0.0612161,0.00002100671,0.1687557,0.01352433,0.5787922],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.001069907,0.00009403288,0.005379969,0.0001536837,0.00002799374,0.00001997878,0.001948918,0.08907542,0.00001173913,0.01381993,0.8874539,0.0009445607],"study_design_candidate":"not_applicable","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"other","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.3601388,0.01268536,0.0009401,0.008560624,0.008691339,0.008722561,0.00168434,0.0002418636,0.598335],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9529127,0.002732719,0.0005436279,0.0003068669,0.001178158,0.00135697,0.00008678631,0.0001933696,0.04068875],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":null,"teacher_disagreement_score":0.8739296,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.9997451,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.1043464690401089,"score_gpt":0.3145056524397302,"score_spread":0.2101591833996213,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}