{"id":"W2265800829","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2432892","title":"Uncertainty and Economic Activity","year":2014,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"SSRN Electronic Journal","topic":"Market Dynamics and Volatility","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":32,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":false,"ca_institutions":"Trinity College","funders":"","keywords":"Environmental science; Natural resource economics; Economics","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.003055151,0.0001178423,0.0002565143,0.0000947514,0.0001601283,0.00007986736,0.0001510633,0.0000708111,0.0001143027],"category_scores_gemma":[0.00007019501,0.0001272119,0.00008251528,0.00004122818,0.00004280704,0.0001789542,0.00003965114,0.0007752547,0.00004828938],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0006413482,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0001647301,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.0005052112,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.001660317,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9983627,0.00003149641,0.000281348,0.0002535337,0.0000198011,0.001051125],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9994357,0.00005360406,0.000235782,0.000179721,0.00001057742,0.00008467498],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_gemma":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0000271288,0.00001976484,0.09988077,0.00000419607,0.00005138387,1.404627e-7,0.00002390595,0.00003585473,0.000004838365,0.880996,0.00003042897,0.01892558],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0004327269,0.0001118815,0.02445052,0.000002300601,0.000003921999,0.00004395268,0.00002755856,0.1061019,0.000001393722,0.855329,0.01333331,0.0001615953],"study_design_candidate":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_consensus":"theoretical_or_conceptual","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.962855,0.0008249534,0.01893376,0.0007505311,0.0002418541,0.00006090379,0.00001347141,0.00001525463,0.0163043],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9969689,0.001725249,0.00004834168,0.00005969776,0.0001789648,0.000002189988,0.000001439544,0.00001386647,0.001001326],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.106066,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.5187549,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.008571506380375103,"score_gpt":0.2043951719687594,"score_spread":0.1958236655883843,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}