{"id":"W2267200606","doi":"10.6338/jda.201110_6(5).0008","title":"X-12-ARIMA对中国季度GDP的探索","year":2011,"lang":"zh","type":"article","venue":"Journal of Data Analysis","topic":"Advanced Computational Techniques and Applications","field":"Computer Science","cited_by":0,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"","keywords":"Autoregressive integrated moving average; China; Real gross domestic product; Quarter (Canadian coin); Index (typography); Economics; Seasonal adjustment; Econometrics; GDP deflator; Gross domestic product; Accounting; Statistics; Geography; Time series; Mathematics; Macroeconomics; Computer science","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":true,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.003074521,0.001271147,0.001219272,0.000838485,0.0007963098,0.001337733,0.001580451,0.0006985735,0.01625039],"category_scores_gemma":[0.006835192,0.0004735096,0.001429193,0.001924941,0.0005005763,0.001011886,0.0006764599,0.001750304,0.004824572],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0007311658,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.001808143,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.02665622,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.01895001,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9974011,0.0008601082,0.0001555656,0.0009184405,0.0004203454,0.0002445333],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9976541,0.0009581237,0.0003484184,0.0003221105,0.0006427559,0.000074369],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"design_other","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.002169527,0.0009343722,0.2288069,0.001312709,0.002304584,0.0008539766,0.001175101,0.09281678,0.009510782,0.06837062,0.1158578,0.4758869],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0004188811,0.001728186,0.1954729,0.0002687565,0.001539729,0.0006046646,0.0008995469,0.5571024,0.01274285,0.03241636,0.1963471,0.0004585484],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"methods","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.2779736,0.001860761,0.6441553,0.001654327,0.001780209,0.001689948,0.03566877,0.008783909,0.02643323],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.6853151,0.001621693,0.2044421,0.0005734934,0.0005822429,0.002575224,0.03410606,0.0006021123,0.07018191],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":null,"teacher_disagreement_score":0.02665622,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.05436301,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.1643455733332151,"score_gpt":0.3661070833135371,"score_spread":0.201761509980322,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}