{"id":"W2274970812","doi":"","title":"寻找阿基米德的“杠杆”——“出生季度”是个弱工具变量吗?","year":2010,"lang":"zh","type":"article","venue":"经济学(季刊)","topic":"Gender, Labor, and Family Dynamics","field":"Social Sciences","cited_by":0,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"","keywords":"Quarter (Canadian coin); Instrumental variable; Variable (mathematics); Sample (material); Population; Demographic economics; Econometrics; Demography; Economics; Geography; Mathematics; Sociology","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":true,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.001791819,0.0001124784,0.000282446,0.0004010299,0.0002876061,0.0006326649,0.0003198997,0.0001853727,0.004139337],"category_scores_gemma":[0.006733537,0.00009268308,0.0002568969,0.0008701883,0.000480181,0.00055037,0.0003127926,0.000443243,0.0007038151],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0004370619,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0005067016,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.005236037,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.005406595,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9994412,0.0002400431,0.00003680681,0.0001381527,0.00007036642,0.00007336017],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9973304,0.00131904,0.0008876536,0.0001825448,0.0002109412,0.00006944728],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0002154192,0.00006975933,0.85184,0.0001532742,0.0002255504,0.0001571916,0.001957178,0.001084663,0.001058414,0.02908853,0.006463532,0.1076865],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00003723966,0.0003021505,0.8912094,0.0001192483,0.0002549229,0.0003573965,0.004362992,0.005254483,0.004894373,0.02495162,0.06818443,0.00007174834],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":"observational","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.961819,0.001303091,0.01672966,0.00431019,0.0001876152,0.00004705042,0.003054618,0.00007711204,0.01247172],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9931156,0.0002641407,0.003099292,0.0001947047,0.00006232676,0.00002978781,0.0006875929,0.000008418438,0.002538242],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.005236037,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.01384747,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.01828853167017552,"score_gpt":0.2800040056830714,"score_spread":0.2617154740128959,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}