{"id":"W2278952097","doi":"10.1080/13504851.2015.1111981","title":"Forecasting Canadian mortgage rates","year":2015,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Applied Economics Letters","topic":"Housing Market and Economics","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":4,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"York University","funders":"","keywords":"Autoregressive integrated moving average; Exponential smoothing; Econometrics; Economics; Forecast error; Ordinary least squares; Floating interest rate; Interest rate; Statistics; Finance; Mathematics; Time series","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":true,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.0008198118,0.0005147593,0.0003257773,0.001962853,0.0009158747,0.001230413,0.0008360143,0.0004018299,0.004472497],"category_scores_gemma":[0.004322635,0.0002234236,0.0005481432,0.002324758,0.000227081,0.0006699577,0.0003699303,0.0005474454,0.0006496307],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.01776798,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.01152074,"about_ca_topic_candidate":true,"about_ca_topic_consensus":true,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.9859185,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.988304,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9995801,0.00003001884,0.00001384087,0.00006642933,0.0002377223,0.00007191963],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9980136,0.0001611848,0.0001062023,0.0000531739,0.001542637,0.0001231386],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0003690818,0.0001222262,0.3462341,0.0002382005,0.0002264693,0.0004289066,0.001058118,0.2509236,0.0019437,0.02916338,0.1352242,0.234068],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0000302821,0.0000423151,0.3001822,0.00007711713,0.000067557,0.00007135503,0.0008008122,0.6473387,0.001591938,0.002625595,0.0470747,0.00009744429],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.8746485,0.00193908,0.02287427,0.003312258,0.0001970787,0.0001346111,0.0383006,0.001004483,0.05758918],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9610437,0.001157434,0.01110302,0.00008513236,0.00003487138,0.00003592712,0.01389114,0.00005887517,0.01259003],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.01776798,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.1289163,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.06045689212797586,"score_gpt":0.1920057793939457,"score_spread":0.1315488872659698,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}