{"id":"W2293176873","doi":"10.1080/10920277.2001.10595984","title":"A Regime-Switching Model of Long-Term Stock Returns","year":2001,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"North American Actuarial Journal","topic":"Financial Risk and Volatility Modeling","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":446,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"University of Waterloo","funders":"","keywords":"Heteroscedasticity; Econometrics; Log-normal distribution; Economics; Autoregressive model; Stock (firearms); Equity (law); Mathematics; Statistics; Geography","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":true,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.002218718,0.0003954449,0.0007195405,0.0006728529,0.0004076338,0.001576135,0.001398646,0.001139349,0.004415181],"category_scores_gemma":[0.006071473,0.0003026524,0.0007907,0.0007560913,0.001004628,0.001632585,0.0006444265,0.001406872,0.0005724988],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0008664631,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0005655985,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.006959744,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.003483055,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9992822,0.0002317695,0.00002993392,0.0001442109,0.0001475012,0.0001645264],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.997898,0.001256048,0.0003216044,0.0001608627,0.0002465824,0.0001168995],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0001033657,0.0001306422,0.01001862,0.00006213503,0.0001144988,0.0004954066,0.0003607674,0.6440039,0.003083876,0.3220658,0.002624728,0.01693639],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.000008720656,0.00001726906,0.001364767,0.000007001981,0.00001203101,0.00005303602,0.00002305992,0.9650722,0.0001017178,0.03288294,0.0004459956,0.00001139825],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":"simulation_or_modeling","genre_codex":"methods","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.4241022,0.0006315616,0.5553327,0.001366977,0.0001510658,0.00007975083,0.0005199887,0.0003802748,0.01743544],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9883955,0.0002889458,0.004870526,0.00006762277,0.0000611821,0.00003890017,0.000143696,0.00002433888,0.006109333],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":null,"teacher_disagreement_score":0.006959744,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.01477027,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.05064599032579171,"score_gpt":0.2549876819403675,"score_spread":0.2043416916145758,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}