{"id":"W2295380485","doi":"10.1515/apjri-2015-0009","title":"On the Use of Long-Term Risk Measures as an Approach to Communicating Risks","year":2015,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Asia-Pacific Journal of Risk and Insurance","topic":"Risk and Portfolio Optimization","field":"Decision Sciences","cited_by":0,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"Western University","funders":"","keywords":"Black swan theory; Actuarial science; Irrational number; Term (time); Time consistency; Risk measure; Volatility (finance); Extreme value theory; Risk analysis (engineering); Economics; Business; Econometrics; Financial economics; Mathematics; Statistics","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.01744141,0.001117968,0.0005437868,0.002703578,0.001384543,0.006888493,0.001836569,0.003542268,0.004073137],"category_scores_gemma":[0.06414508,0.0004541717,0.0008085322,0.001590458,0.007788842,0.01313995,0.004703644,0.004517965,0.0005348514],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.002433229,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.001024043,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.001179156,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.0007502235,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9824848,0.0133037,0.0007889108,0.0009610593,0.002192703,0.0002687871],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9232134,0.059599,0.007056869,0.004161288,0.004776645,0.001192798],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_gemma":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0001229834,0.0001004981,0.00207304,0.0001876197,0.00007234848,0.0002093042,0.003015353,0.008460383,0.001003259,0.9233354,0.00233418,0.05908564],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00002775134,0.0002155683,0.001316906,0.0004380414,0.00006865988,0.0003039884,0.001393495,0.0417936,0.001541518,0.9337246,0.01907383,0.0001019859],"study_design_candidate":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_consensus":"theoretical_or_conceptual","genre_codex":"methods","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.04717707,0.004504822,0.8459595,0.02790726,0.0008257332,0.0001449344,0.0001202491,0.0003114918,0.07304893],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.8570973,0.001928823,0.1352231,0.00193144,0.0004332996,0.0002258581,0.00004824819,0.00006297108,0.003049081],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":null,"teacher_disagreement_score":0.01744141,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.0922401,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.2472356810878239,"score_gpt":0.3747566030869812,"score_spread":0.1275209219991573,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}