{"id":"W2323379408","doi":"10.1094/pdis-04-15-0404-re","title":"Evaluation of Forecasting Models for Fusarium Head Blight of Wheat Under Growing Conditions of Quebec, Canada","year":2016,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Plant Disease","topic":"Mycotoxins in Agriculture and Food","field":"Agricultural and Biological Sciences","cited_by":31,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"Montreal Council on Foreign Relations; Grain Research Centre; Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada; Ministère de l'Agriculture, des Pêcheries et de l'Alimentation; Université Laval","funders":"Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada; Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada; Université Laval","keywords":"Fungicide; Blight; Biology; Winter wheat; Fusarium; Crop; Predictive modelling; Agronomy; Growing season; Statistics; Horticulture; Mathematics","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":true,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":true,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.001162418,0.0009933605,0.0003467146,0.0006112558,0.0007360367,0.0007832159,0.0008373492,0.0004116593,0.001164566],"category_scores_gemma":[0.002077694,0.000222017,0.0003913303,0.0004800489,0.0002012026,0.0002622743,0.0002570559,0.0003557795,0.0001257162],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0111101,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.005009265,"about_ca_topic_candidate":true,"about_ca_topic_consensus":true,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.9578674,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.9255909,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9997885,0.00005659173,0.00001289818,0.00006368053,0.00002938758,0.00004900058],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.998508,0.0006200825,0.0000987402,0.00003164332,0.0006780884,0.00006335133],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0002892228,0.0001491801,0.0403253,0.00004915523,0.00008557746,0.00005963283,0.00006297485,0.9377502,0.001218529,0.000200984,0.00148666,0.01832253],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00001391843,0.00004061384,0.008151092,0.000005566354,0.00001690995,0.000003944833,0.00003675721,0.9911113,0.0003432129,0.00002926703,0.000240169,0.000007177825],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":"simulation_or_modeling","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9877663,0.000290927,0.007415523,0.0002009332,0.00002283655,0.0000982414,0.001407861,0.0002687083,0.002528675],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9921998,0.0001151545,0.00452981,0.000033857,0.000004086106,0.00004665138,0.001474599,0.00001456742,0.001581421],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.04213262,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.08476144,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.07725412192016921,"score_gpt":0.2476640621254332,"score_spread":0.170409940205264,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}