{"id":"W2341202747","doi":"10.1002/joc.4568","title":"Blind use of reanalysis data: apparent trends in Madden–Julian Oscillation activity driven by observational changes","year":2015,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"International Journal of Climatology","topic":"Climate variability and models","field":"Environmental Science","cited_by":29,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"Dalhousie University","funders":"","keywords":"Climatology; Madden–Julian oscillation; Environmental science; Observational study; Hindcast; Predictability; Meteorology; Geography; Geology; Convection; Statistics; Mathematics","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.003916529,0.0002950826,0.0003082472,0.001445334,0.0003282139,0.001526746,0.000396278,0.0003412576,0.0005495043],"category_scores_gemma":[0.01981337,0.0002393835,0.0003289579,0.002029152,0.0004755745,0.001191933,0.001024108,0.0004273008,0.0001886656],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0004611144,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.000776029,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.01343957,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.01646575,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9983121,0.000701652,0.0002268747,0.0003251033,0.0003395887,0.00009476069],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9896944,0.003793511,0.003351512,0.001604929,0.001279304,0.0002764045],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0007390922,0.00008600747,0.9192177,0.0001311127,0.0004467853,0.00008662997,0.0006189887,0.007519784,0.01034116,0.001240917,0.001297838,0.05827393],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00003265537,0.00006041418,0.9642484,0.00004218896,0.0001113729,0.00004392183,0.0002293058,0.02784586,0.004934684,0.0006426023,0.001752669,0.00005587462],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":"observational","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9844136,0.0006018743,0.01035935,0.0003325299,0.000100619,0.00004359339,0.001796156,0.0002251738,0.002127077],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9937597,0.0001790482,0.004850982,0.0000482814,0.00003965998,0.00001488633,0.0007906468,0.00003020906,0.0002864109],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.01343957,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.02672267,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.2531015132819221,"score_gpt":0.3757698188483359,"score_spread":0.1226683055664138,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}