{"id":"W2342712220","doi":"","title":"How Effective Are Quantitative Methods in Forecasting Crude Oil Prices","year":2015,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"SSRN Electronic Journal","topic":"Market Dynamics and Volatility","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":1,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"Memorial University of Newfoundland","funders":"","keywords":"West Texas Intermediate; Futures contract; Crude oil; Speculation; Oil-storage trade; Autoregressive integrated moving average; Upstream (networking); Econometrics; Order (exchange); Economics; Financial economics; Econometric model; Production (economics); Crack spread; Computer science; Finance; Time series; Microeconomics; Petroleum engineering; Engineering","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.009091616,0.001224385,0.0009862549,0.002779899,0.000522918,0.003942745,0.001243425,0.001971151,0.00297147],"category_scores_gemma":[0.0586395,0.0005257432,0.0007673132,0.001657434,0.001100041,0.007094091,0.000787994,0.00142907,0.001540941],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0006820929,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.001211483,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.004169607,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.002938228,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9942083,0.003109195,0.0002886538,0.0005488966,0.001707591,0.0001371967],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.969412,0.02261162,0.00245348,0.002827967,0.002490126,0.0002047168],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"design_other","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0003296536,0.000294617,0.02721282,0.001113761,0.0005832224,0.0001084166,0.0002725747,0.3992254,0.005240706,0.1327046,0.008292037,0.4246222],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0000635757,0.0001567506,0.006915384,0.0003935779,0.00009034981,0.0001373513,0.0004849961,0.8553742,0.00485203,0.117537,0.01384563,0.0001491398],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"methods","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.04096923,0.004271272,0.9328458,0.00481686,0.0007345661,0.000124294,0.001178926,0.001239671,0.01381944],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.6219207,0.005436451,0.3669177,0.0007105442,0.0005809919,0.0002099114,0.001092701,0.0003213748,0.002809607],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":null,"teacher_disagreement_score":0.009091616,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.04808164,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.06286713738752982,"score_gpt":0.3060656317342719,"score_spread":0.2431984943467421,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}