{"id":"W2343550067","doi":"10.1287/mnsc.2015.2360","title":"Optimal Time-Inconsistent Beliefs: Misplanning, Procrastination, and Commitment","year":2016,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Management Science","topic":"Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics","field":"Decision Sciences","cited_by":30,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"York University; University of Cyprus; Northwestern University; Purdue University; National Science Foundation; Yale University; Princeton University; Alfred P. Sloan Foundation","keywords":"Procrastination; Incentive; Heuristics; Dynamic inconsistency; Overconfidence effect; Context (archaeology); Optimism; Consistency (knowledge bases); Economics; Psychology; Social psychology; Time consistency; Preference; Temptation; Microeconomics; Computer science; Actuarial science","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":true,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":["insufficient_payload"],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.003949088,0.0001445784,0.0001787615,0.0004758029,0.0004806142,0.0006350241,0.001113623,0.00002579403,0.0002672489],"category_scores_gemma":[0.0005343455,0.00008457465,0.00004384228,0.0006918102,0.0006435451,0.0005397982,0.0008005615,0.00004115108,0.001135022],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0001149582,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.00003350291,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.000003184458,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.000002370291,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9970158,0.00004101003,0.0004810299,0.0008310922,0.001276386,0.0003546993],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9984831,0.0003145693,0.0002090393,0.0006315185,0.0001872707,0.0001745457],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"design_other","study_design_gemma":"not_applicable","study_design_scores_codex":[0.00001181483,0.00007560339,0.009459436,0.000002190789,0.000005205568,0.00001954968,0.0001360696,0.00008705119,0.000641851,0.002340131,0.007137379,0.9800837],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.003996357,0.0009935906,0.4088646,0.0007480214,0.0001195986,0.0001313384,0.002308844,0.0168168,0.003943514,0.0972454,0.4628947,0.001937166],"study_design_candidate":"design_other","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9640049,0.00003355845,0.008042204,0.003035199,0.0003663493,0.0003520212,0.000008372228,0.00006747186,0.02408988],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9770103,0.00001310516,0.01077895,0.0002816837,0.00002768829,0.00002172369,4.481892e-7,0.000006916718,0.01185923],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.9781466,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.9996427,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.06130036716212591,"score_gpt":0.3610238906839798,"score_spread":0.2997235235218539,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}