{"id":"W238276039","doi":"","title":"From a Soft Patch to Recession for Industrial Countries","year":2013,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"˜The œjournal of business forecasting","topic":"Regional Development and Policy","field":"Social Sciences","cited_by":0,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"","keywords":"Quarter (Canadian coin); Economics; Monetization; Recession; Emerging markets; Current account; Business cycle; Debt; Real gross domestic product; Gross domestic product; Exchange rate; Monetary economics; Macroeconomics","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":true,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.001126404,0.00009879616,0.0001892611,0.00009410405,0.0005946961,0.0001753178,0.0003584922,0.00009718356,0.0001368267],"category_scores_gemma":[0.0008042941,0.00006400546,0.00005618045,0.000433037,0.00009430588,0.0004177214,0.00004497938,0.000127839,0.00002556353],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0000746811,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0004943289,"about_ca_topic_candidate":true,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.007672453,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.0008478732,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9987357,0.00008930323,0.0003824857,0.00008054545,0.0004346151,0.0002773823],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9975873,0.0009073373,0.0004012081,0.00006663301,0.0009191249,0.0001183645],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"design_other","study_design_gemma":"not_applicable","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0008352625,0.00007831583,0.04698237,0.00003572666,0.0001443082,0.00001036737,0.07335894,0.0005884929,0.0006678269,0.0008670214,0.3377991,0.5386322],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.001258848,0.00008821288,0.01086546,0.0006524084,0.00005957072,0.00001675626,0.007469833,0.0005893627,0.000117616,0.01678614,0.9617733,0.0003224976],"study_design_candidate":"not_applicable","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9637311,0.00008268091,0.007887475,0.02493325,0.001773975,0.0004586481,0.000007559812,0.00001531941,0.001110032],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9916693,0.00003479434,0.001763964,0.0006865568,0.004820226,0.00001478265,0.000003597446,0.00001475389,0.0009920552],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.6239741,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.9989355,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.1001878655992294,"score_gpt":0.3094362730602712,"score_spread":0.2092484074610417,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}