{"id":"W2408086762","doi":"10.1175/waf-d-16-0026.1","title":"Diagnosis of the Source and Evolution of Medium-Range Forecast Errors for Extratropical Cyclone Joachim","year":2016,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Weather and Forecasting","topic":"Climate variability and models","field":"Environmental Science","cited_by":33,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"","keywords":"Extratropical cyclone; Trough (economics); Climatology; Cyclone (programming language); Meteorology; Landfall; Environmental science; Middle latitudes; Tropical cyclone forecast model; Tropical cyclone; Geology; Geography; Computer science","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":true,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.0008822776,0.0002962453,0.0002606729,0.0008371011,0.0002418426,0.0004274422,0.0002665071,0.0003350766,0.0004449034],"category_scores_gemma":[0.004502486,0.0001366628,0.0002292959,0.0004824909,0.0001437704,0.0003742301,0.0004429302,0.0005318244,0.00007517655],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0003819453,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0003927244,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.01415872,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.01674992,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9996966,0.00006226228,0.00002811878,0.00006659299,0.00009138958,0.00005500095],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9979507,0.0008833168,0.0003381669,0.0001626899,0.0004541497,0.000210865],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0004537315,0.0001490112,0.8958083,0.00002653558,0.0001392946,0.0004838029,0.0001948852,0.06818683,0.00733928,0.0003802279,0.0008551893,0.02598293],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00002959465,0.00008039076,0.748142,0.00001322767,0.00003264876,0.00007959388,0.000147813,0.2467325,0.004210601,0.0001717055,0.0003380716,0.00002182797],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9984365,0.00003783671,0.0008872027,0.0000390501,0.00001208266,0.00000691905,0.0001406669,0.00002662163,0.0004129787],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9992959,0.000008505677,0.0003940592,0.000003979807,0.000004108244,0.000001999944,0.0002316273,0.000003831423,0.00005593387],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.01415872,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.02815264,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.02733195606432154,"score_gpt":0.2207118949922125,"score_spread":0.193379938927891,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}