{"id":"W2462978922","doi":"10.1371/journal.pone.0172355","title":"Cholera forecast for Dhaka, Bangladesh, with the 2015-2016 El Niño: Lessons learned","year":2017,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"PLoS ONE","topic":"Vibrio bacteria research studies","field":"Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology","cited_by":28,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"Science and Technology Directorate; International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh; Global Affairs Canada; Fogarty International Center; Department for International Development; National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration; Styrelsen för Internationellt Utvecklingssamarbete; National Institute of General Medical Sciences; U.S. Department of Homeland Security; National Aeronautics and Space Administration; National Institutes of Health; National Science Foundation","keywords":"Cholera; Climatology; Predictability; Geography; Teleconnection; Outbreak; Monsoon; El Niño Southern Oscillation; Environmental science; Precipitation; Demography; Statistics; Meteorology; Mathematics; Geology; Medicine","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":true,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.000782662,0.0006466016,0.0002888955,0.0003114289,0.0002379457,0.0009245455,0.000928223,0.0008794115,0.001815941],"category_scores_gemma":[0.002505743,0.0003329082,0.0004444085,0.000473378,0.0001940808,0.0013179,0.0003632836,0.0008086239,0.000805776],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.001515606,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.001257703,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.205135,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.1336856,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9998232,0.00005241029,0.0000206468,0.00004873017,0.00002968148,0.00002539956],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9993706,0.0001961457,0.0000643133,0.00005848309,0.0001996321,0.0001107471],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.000251683,0.000124171,0.1575449,0.0001419499,0.0001416376,0.0002529293,0.0001441787,0.8042907,0.001010005,0.001395661,0.01381978,0.02088239],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00007042904,0.00006355735,0.03475402,0.00006704383,0.00004086848,0.00002460456,0.0003565461,0.9573812,0.0007335251,0.001438806,0.00501436,0.00005508305],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9381181,0.00103105,0.008818049,0.014625,0.0003967499,0.00007651593,0.02674879,0.001052661,0.009132971],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.985414,0.000621115,0.00400308,0.0001986267,0.00005758721,0.00002208026,0.008791693,0.00005310234,0.0008387412],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.205135,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.4078819,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.09807495171215826,"score_gpt":0.335910583341187,"score_spread":0.2378356316290288,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}