{"id":"W2485516821","doi":"10.1057/palcomms.2016.50","title":"Independence of events, and errors in understanding it","year":2016,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Palgrave Communications","topic":"Sports Analytics and Performance","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":1,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"The King's University; Western University","funders":"","keywords":"Gestalt psychology; Independence (probability theory); Fallacy; Focus (optics); Psychology; Event (particle physics); Cognitive psychology; Epistemology; Social psychology; Outcome (game theory); Positive economics; Philosophy; Economics; Mathematics; Mathematical economics","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.0003817684,0.00005116632,0.0001412227,0.0001604554,0.0000543928,0.000006066303,0.0002842984,0.00004012391,0.0001107011],"category_scores_gemma":[0.00004975719,0.00004633928,0.00002532345,0.0001555162,0.00009581695,0.00004702748,0.0001198184,0.00006797024,0.00002141083],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.00006148774,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.00000990724,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.0002839596,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.0007732093,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9994309,0.00000735366,0.0003331268,0.0001088328,0.00002153391,0.00009826095],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9991356,0.0000790238,0.000171583,0.0005708612,0.00001480456,0.00002809603],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_gemma":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_scores_codex":[0.000001139029,0.000009564525,0.4483061,0.000003815726,0.000005594616,7.982612e-8,0.0002047495,0.000002953606,0.00001046487,0.5512106,0.00001266196,0.0002323109],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0004120229,0.00002112315,0.4468029,0.0001053193,0.000003435343,0.000001504485,0.0003505267,0.003039525,0.00002157723,0.5453542,0.003742102,0.0001456721],"study_design_candidate":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_consensus":"theoretical_or_conceptual","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.7306642,0.01279938,0.07393182,0.03709959,0.0003197973,0.0006778144,0.0004083288,0.00004911463,0.14405],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.993773,0.005691343,0.000371021,0.00004853283,0.000003780591,0.000006795216,0.000003024327,0.000005382228,0.00009706616],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.2631089,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.1889661,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.1374003609853452,"score_gpt":0.2831772732442862,"score_spread":0.145776912258941,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}