{"id":"W2504037630","doi":"10.1111/jmcb.12493","title":"The Real‐Time Properties of the Bank of Canada's Staff Output Gap Estimates","year":2018,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Journal of money credit and banking","topic":"Monetary Policy and Economic Impact","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":18,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"","keywords":"Output gap; Predictability; Inflation (cosmology); Recession; Economics; Potential output; Econometrics; Phillips curve; Sample (material); Macroeconomics; Monetary policy; Statistics; Mathematics; Physics","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":true,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.01078299,0.000306729,0.0005849238,0.003222956,0.0009084109,0.002376804,0.001119264,0.0005164965,0.001570353],"category_scores_gemma":[0.08120131,0.0002995715,0.0003190965,0.004452265,0.0007936413,0.0007162003,0.000843729,0.001092051,0.0003734323],"about_ca_system_candidate":true,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.007731136,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.00938283,"about_ca_topic_candidate":true,"about_ca_topic_consensus":true,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.9034551,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.820136,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9942266,0.00077897,0.0003606704,0.0005789109,0.003423085,0.0006317274],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9205909,0.02314617,0.01327745,0.005063114,0.0364557,0.001466523],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0004607214,0.00002951496,0.8747974,0.0001548303,0.0003182238,0.0002178728,0.00184172,0.03491895,0.0006475667,0.00563426,0.01814254,0.06283645],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.00001950211,0.00003446792,0.9407048,0.0001158389,0.00006748968,0.0001151035,0.0008690605,0.04395005,0.001390716,0.001260877,0.0113873,0.00008479904],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9702733,0.001769846,0.005723951,0.001911789,0.0001083454,0.00004107744,0.01164153,0.0002191197,0.008311063],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9926215,0.000260152,0.0009114832,0.00005975592,0.00002449849,0.000009248662,0.004923913,0.00003809138,0.001151186],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.9922689,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.1942268,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.04927596399967737,"score_gpt":0.2054115448854269,"score_spread":0.1561355808857496,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}