{"id":"W2519298366","doi":"10.24148/wp2020-33","title":"Learning in the Oil Futures Markets: Evidence and Macroeconomic Implications","year":2020,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Working Paper Series","topic":"Market Dynamics and Volatility","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":4,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"Université Laval","funders":"Université de Bordeaux","keywords":"Futures contract; Economics; Oil price; Persistence (discontinuity); Monetary economics; Empirical evidence; Financial economics","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.001050427,0.0001900636,0.000422677,0.00007800428,0.0003156455,0.000224534,0.0004508678,0.00009855726,0.0003331867],"category_scores_gemma":[0.0006234071,0.0001787851,0.00009253436,0.000283992,0.0001428742,0.0004800588,0.0001674529,0.0003849241,0.000009660256],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.00003490876,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.00002510231,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.0003161121,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.001322477,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9983768,0.000094943,0.0006985835,0.000470234,0.00005440515,0.0003050375],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9988869,0.0003622356,0.0003134978,0.0003400689,0.00002543587,0.00007183284],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0002054682,0.00002440869,0.9717036,0.0001625073,0.00002878531,0.000002455386,0.002378184,0.00004731402,0.0001257419,0.01620655,0.0005442027,0.008570794],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0002924001,0.0001050927,0.9533907,0.0001166515,0.00000418817,0.000004336749,0.0006839426,0.002753988,0.000008712003,0.009412832,0.03299143,0.0002357495],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":"observational","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9551673,0.01016705,0.00007396215,0.01463448,0.0001163297,0.0001640271,0.0000340924,0.00003081497,0.01961198],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9962162,0.001939668,0.0004187979,0.0008939856,0.0001163897,0.00004429247,0.00001014711,0.00002119799,0.0003393391],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.04104891,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.7290646,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.0417189069059868,"score_gpt":0.2420874342449718,"score_spread":0.200368527338985,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}