{"id":"W2519946226","doi":"10.1016/j.jeconbus.2016.09.001","title":"The Bad, the boom and the bust: Profit warnings over the business cycle","year":2016,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Journal of Economics and Business","topic":"Financial Markets and Investment Strategies","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":7,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":false,"ca_institutions":"Thompson Rivers University","funders":"","keywords":"Bust; Business cycle; Surprise; Monetary economics; Earnings; Boom; Stock market; Economics; Abnormal return; Warning signs; Business; Financial economics; Stock exchange; Finance; Keynesian economics","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.002062764,0.000342895,0.000325736,0.001121313,0.001354829,0.004641595,0.0005091679,0.004642527,0.003751229],"category_scores_gemma":[0.02617646,0.0001954306,0.0001788478,0.001061709,0.002014382,0.004896443,0.001455345,0.004487275,0.0005138534],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.001445191,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.001111132,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.005178519,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.009681608,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9993507,0.0002315477,0.00003733128,0.00005823654,0.0002229243,0.0000993567],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9910476,0.004706274,0.001947286,0.000300922,0.001088026,0.0009099472],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"not_applicable","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.002831004,0.0001616238,0.05474532,0.000363353,0.00009266636,0.001390308,0.003092099,0.003773493,0.001341072,0.09887736,0.6388912,0.1944405],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0003041757,0.0004305644,0.1009694,0.001136884,0.0001939253,0.0008574574,0.01141214,0.02181711,0.002159121,0.4243235,0.4361421,0.0002536931],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"commentary","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.2097246,0.01882401,0.00371014,0.6965513,0.009151247,0.00003164081,0.001019651,0.000364212,0.06062324],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9577498,0.00464342,0.0005443851,0.02288048,0.005656477,0.00001099492,0.0001632668,0.00008655436,0.008264582],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":null,"teacher_disagreement_score":0.005178519,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.0125491,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.01343046890620745,"score_gpt":0.1821069596378554,"score_spread":0.1686764907316479,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}