{"id":"W2533363307","doi":"10.1257/mac.20170131","title":"Government Spending Multipliers under the Zero Lower Bound: Evidence from Japan","year":2018,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"American Economic Journal Macroeconomics","topic":"Monetary Policy and Economic Impact","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":147,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"Bank of Canada","funders":"","keywords":"Zero lower bound; Economics; Government spending; Inflation (cosmology); Monetary economics; Nominal interest rate; Consumer spending; Investment (military); Consumption (sociology); Macroeconomics; Real interest rate; Interest rate; Recession; Welfare","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":["metaepi_narrow","insufficient_payload"],"consensus_categories":["insufficient_payload"],"category_scores_codex":[0.001541231,0.0005483992,0.001033427,0.0001775128,0.0008567062,0.0008404378,0.001396576,0.0001240403,0.004710088],"category_scores_gemma":[0.0001053089,0.0005482969,0.0004971599,0.00009834217,0.001287212,0.001319576,0.0002933008,0.0006755601,0.0101639],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.002633835,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.00008331332,"about_ca_topic_candidate":true,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.006890572,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.0009587971,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9959445,0.00006974442,0.001839161,0.0009386683,0.00005901708,0.001148893],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9955806,0.0005395559,0.002291585,0.001085602,0.00001216182,0.0004905196],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"not_applicable","study_design_scores_codex":[0.00156113,0.000345035,0.7724224,0.00002119002,0.004043824,0.00002664799,0.007398503,0.04160228,0.0003519017,0.0471838,0.07605598,0.04898727],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.004731482,0.002147404,0.332514,0.0001872707,0.0002273891,0.0007321435,0.01048107,0.1277835,0.0008846256,0.1650972,0.3507071,0.004506866],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9796942,0.0007928355,0.003496794,0.003929566,0.004859663,0.0002768342,0.0004832364,0.00004550978,0.006421391],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9885452,0.001644572,0.001422614,0.004114715,0.003440918,0.00001695597,0.000007936146,0.0001080995,0.0006989476],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.4399085,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.9997226,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.04907506792382568,"score_gpt":0.2543620901484329,"score_spread":0.2052870222246072,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}