{"id":"W2537637332","doi":"10.1016/j.forsciint.2016.10.004","title":"On the mishandling of probabilities in Lamotte & Wells’ commentary on J.P. Michaud, G. Moreau, Predicting the visitation of carcasses by carrion-related insects under different rates of degree-day accumulation","year":2016,"lang":"en","type":"letter","venue":"Forensic Science International","topic":"Forensic Entomology and Diptera Studies","field":"Agricultural and Biological Sciences","cited_by":3,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":false,"ca_institutions":"Royal Canadian Mounted Police; Université de Moncton","funders":"","keywords":"Carrion; Degree (music); Ecological succession; Statistics; Interpretation (philosophy); Logistic regression; Forensic entomology; Degree day; Ecology; Simple (philosophy); Mathematics; Forensic science; Econometrics; Geography; Biology; Computer science; Archaeology; Epistemology; Philosophy; Physics","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.02418187,0.001543668,0.0029945,0.00136672,0.008336267,0.006353758,0.007372261,0.1058956,0.006031032],"category_scores_gemma":[0.1209801,0.002126715,0.002769501,0.001764478,0.01553266,0.009142547,0.003202371,0.08783571,0.007613482],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.008196495,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.008293037,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.04454777,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.07194115,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9781688,0.007891817,0.002626696,0.00424126,0.00560812,0.00146344],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.8965855,0.08377684,0.003429807,0.002335419,0.01096019,0.002912289],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"not_applicable","study_design_gemma":"not_applicable","study_design_scores_codex":[0.00003443271,0.00001098039,0.0002387999,0.00003424961,0.00001554743,0.0003432224,0.0003053979,0.00005812618,0.00007243198,0.005489663,0.9898335,0.003563745],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0001129675,0.00005703077,0.002079159,0.000732726,0.00004990763,0.0007248935,0.0008562562,0.0008234104,0.0004749744,0.04501035,0.9488707,0.0002075712],"study_design_candidate":"not_applicable","study_design_consensus":"not_applicable","genre_codex":"commentary","genre_gemma":"commentary","genre_scores_codex":[0.0001168266,0.001048964,0.0001705662,0.9864011,0.0111301,0.000005944103,0.00006470814,0.00002048898,0.001041311],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.001542923,0.0002337418,0.0001845595,0.9826686,0.0140292,0.00001755965,0.00001117634,0.00002027356,0.001291936],"genre_candidate":"commentary","genre_consensus":"commentary","teacher_disagreement_score":0.1058956,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.1278875,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.05867938724271244,"score_gpt":0.2914390208374529,"score_spread":0.2327596335947404,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}