{"id":"W2542933970","doi":"10.3386/w24646","title":"Global Portfolio Diversification for Long-Horizon Investors","year":2018,"lang":"en","type":"report","venue":"National Bureau of Economic Research","topic":"Financial Markets and Investment Strategies","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":22,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"University of Toronto; Harvard Business School","keywords":"Diversification (marketing strategy); Economics; Bond; Cash flow; Portfolio; Financial economics; Monetary economics; Volatility (finance); Equity (law); Stock (firearms); Interest rate; Business; Finance","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":true,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.0007447114,0.0003101882,0.0003138396,0.0006446163,0.0003144373,0.001258225,0.0002033742,0.0003697436,0.00332102],"category_scores_gemma":[0.002474426,0.0001043339,0.000304923,0.0005672559,0.0004824026,0.002049688,0.001084928,0.0007516787,0.0001426047],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0005986973,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0004285586,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.0007769272,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.001472945,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9998914,0.00002674912,0.00000444015,0.00002193514,0.00002525644,0.00003027072],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9988719,0.0003094677,0.0004640715,0.0000968496,0.0001004157,0.0001573323],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0003402718,0.0002007252,0.3995636,0.0002586776,0.0003933934,0.001477545,0.001027321,0.04450098,0.006289063,0.3402313,0.004750845,0.2009664],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0001028331,0.0006211319,0.3841124,0.0004173086,0.0005149644,0.001894278,0.002567216,0.08249249,0.00554606,0.5001134,0.02153615,0.00008169979],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"other","genre_scores_codex":[0.9485791,0.004130119,0.01296457,0.002001521,0.00003309273,0.00002910033,0.0001431863,0.00002999941,0.03208935],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9970583,0.001236798,0.0005998636,0.00007070079,0.00003097999,0.000004647869,0.00005051485,0.000002139671,0.0009460365],"genre_candidate":"other","genre_consensus":null,"teacher_disagreement_score":0.00332102,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.01110995,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.4144464581912579,"score_gpt":0.4630811606178133,"score_spread":0.04863470242655538,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}