{"id":"W2547072632","doi":"10.1186/s12963-016-0107-z","title":"Alzheimer’s and other dementias in Canada, 2011 to 2031: a microsimulation Population Health Modeling (POHEM) study of projected prevalence, health burden, health services, and caregiving use","year":2016,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Population Health Metrics","topic":"Dementia and Cognitive Impairment Research","field":"Medicine","cited_by":70,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"University of Ottawa; Ministry of Health; Institute for Clinical Evaluative Sciences; Public Health Agency of Canada; Statistics Canada","funders":"University of Toronto; Alzheimer's Society; Institute for Clinical Evaluative Sciences; York University; McMaster University; University of Ottawa","keywords":"Dementia; Medicine; Gerontology; Epidemiology; Public health; Population health; Microsimulation; Incidence (geometry); Population; Population ageing; Health care; Demography; Environmental health; Disease; Nursing","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":true,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":true,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.002283571,0.0002563623,0.0007294867,0.001396395,0.0002903965,0.00003870307,0.00007985466,0.00005718769,0.00002143961],"category_scores_gemma":[0.0001355775,0.000220534,0.00002801813,0.001276323,0.00001249811,0.0003039767,0.00008174038,0.0001721546,9.94942e-7],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.001741692,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.001782459,"about_ca_topic_candidate":true,"about_ca_topic_consensus":true,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.9671373,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.8353865,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9953567,0.0007381589,0.00149391,0.0006530433,0.0009959604,0.0007621955],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9977862,0.0001746541,0.0007576735,0.0003051813,0.0003168084,0.0006594611],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0001566967,0.0002148518,0.9296913,0.001618973,0.00004395826,7.462334e-7,0.002557939,0.0003761053,0.000008033559,0.0000136746,0.00006920666,0.0652485],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.002879315,0.001514177,0.9727257,0.001181279,0.00003139849,0.000004608029,0.001557638,0.01983007,0.000002825324,0.00001698102,0.00009975787,0.0001562501],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":"observational","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9816439,0.005731614,0.001851479,0.005181823,0.00008254088,0.005401326,0.00007197316,0.00003348761,0.000001919105],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.994355,0.0009640771,0.0014326,0.002951563,0.00004949779,0.00007085836,0.0001038138,0.00004130729,0.00003127587],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.1317509,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.8993117,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.09536342807215929,"score_gpt":0.3875842907539416,"score_spread":0.2922208626817823,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}