{"id":"W2547072632","doi":"10.1186/s12963-016-0107-z","title":"Alzheimer’s and other dementias in Canada, 2011 to 2031: a microsimulation Population Health Modeling (POHEM) study of projected prevalence, health burden, health services, and caregiving use","year":2016,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Population Health Metrics","topic":"Dementia and Cognitive Impairment Research","field":"Medicine","cited_by":70,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"University of Ottawa; Ministry of Health; Institute for Clinical Evaluative Sciences; Public Health Agency of Canada; Statistics Canada","funders":"University of Toronto; Alzheimer's Society; Institute for Clinical Evaluative Sciences; York University; McMaster University; University of Ottawa","keywords":"Dementia; Medicine; Gerontology; Epidemiology; Public health; Population health; Microsimulation; Incidence (geometry); Population; Population ageing; Health care; Demography; Environmental health; Disease; Nursing","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":true,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":true,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.001581398,0.0007065884,0.0005173489,0.000846767,0.001307318,0.001097794,0.001343157,0.0005591649,0.001439252],"category_scores_gemma":[0.002857641,0.0003707708,0.001307414,0.001617762,0.0004471897,0.0005134845,0.0008670395,0.0008285278,0.0001664351],"about_ca_system_candidate":true,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.03714332,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.02903294,"about_ca_topic_candidate":true,"about_ca_topic_consensus":true,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.9864423,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.9754581,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9995145,0.0001275175,0.00001959979,0.00007197117,0.0001098864,0.0001566813],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9988856,0.00028813,0.0001150275,0.00004731576,0.0004715124,0.0001924407],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_gemma":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_scores_codex":[0.0005647689,0.0003926107,0.332102,0.0002281182,0.001003489,0.0003203867,0.000887969,0.6166888,0.000281094,0.01059199,0.01762564,0.01931315],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.0001268494,0.0001777856,0.1697199,0.00009635458,0.0002742024,0.0001001404,0.001335686,0.8181776,0.0002214209,0.002189173,0.007491311,0.00008958164],"study_design_candidate":"simulation_or_modeling","study_design_consensus":"simulation_or_modeling","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.9706708,0.0009955661,0.004208485,0.002876758,0.0000469511,0.0001724613,0.01618394,0.0001193321,0.004725548],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9883196,0.0006440315,0.003084707,0.0001628831,0.00001484933,0.0001114234,0.006205633,0.00001820653,0.001438659],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.9628567,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.2694949,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.09536342807215929,"score_gpt":0.3875842907539416,"score_spread":0.2922208626817823,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}