{"id":"W2554737630","doi":"10.1002/fut.21756","title":"The Prevalence, Sources, and Effects of Herding","year":2015,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Journal of Futures Markets","topic":"Financial Markets and Investment Strategies","field":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","cited_by":41,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"Bank of Canada","funders":"","keywords":"Herding; Futures contract; Incentive; Herd behavior; Financial economics; Herd; Economics; Hedge fund; Business; Monetary economics; Microeconomics; Finance; Geography","routes":{"ca_aff":true,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":false,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":false},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061c","candidate_categories":[],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.00266858,0.000143734,0.0002728124,0.001047968,0.0003598711,0.000677485,0.0005258183,0.0004813989,0.002218258],"category_scores_gemma":[0.01145014,0.000188072,0.0003811078,0.0007106839,0.0006783307,0.001045511,0.001059568,0.0006692359,0.0002139492],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.0003793772,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.0001771975,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.006266799,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.009954669,"domain_scores_codex":[0.9987425,0.0003708058,0.0001299402,0.0003110344,0.0002535449,0.0001922242],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9761137,0.008033175,0.0129054,0.001254215,0.0008639639,0.000829505],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"observational","study_design_gemma":"observational","study_design_scores_codex":[0.00004662406,0.00002675136,0.9956244,0.00000894477,0.00007248177,0.00002817139,0.0002595266,0.0001738219,0.0001609241,0.00007580813,0.0001269036,0.003395718],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.000002177185,0.00006239089,0.9982426,0.000008193308,0.00002810947,0.00004800663,0.000367531,0.0009312503,0.00009363544,0.00009076332,0.0001208455,0.000004470941],"study_design_candidate":"observational","study_design_consensus":"observational","genre_codex":"empirical","genre_gemma":"empirical","genre_scores_codex":[0.998794,0.0001723682,0.0002600632,0.00007723484,0.000003439133,0.000005716224,0.0001673798,0.000004827463,0.0005149903],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.9995732,0.0000443157,0.0001314284,0.00001131062,0.000006465479,0.000002825555,0.0001150973,8.355003e-7,0.0001145483],"genre_candidate":"empirical","genre_consensus":"empirical","teacher_disagreement_score":0.006266799,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.01411295,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.01521161885679063,"score_gpt":0.2041546206009552,"score_spread":0.1889430017441646,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}