{"id":"W2554863279","doi":"","title":"Observed best prediction via nested-error regression with potentially misspecified mean and variance","year":2015,"lang":"en","type":"article","venue":"Survey methodology","topic":"Statistical Methods and Inference","field":"Mathematics","cited_by":7,"is_retracted":false,"has_abstract":true,"ca_institutions":"","funders":"","keywords":"Estimator; Small area estimation; Statistics; Mean squared error; Best linear unbiased prediction; Variance (accounting); Mean squared prediction error; Mathematics; Computer science; Linear regression; Regression; Econometrics; Machine learning","routes":{"ca_aff":false,"ca_fund":false,"ca_venue":true,"about_ca":false,"invisible_to_affiliation_only":true},"retraction":null,"screen":null,"direct_labels":[],"prediction":{"model_version":"codex-gemma-dda1882f352a","candidate_categories":["metaresearch"],"consensus_categories":[],"category_scores_codex":[0.008995382,0.0002288022,0.0005563684,0.00006934922,0.00008803562,0.00002833689,0.0001730062,0.0002400047,0.00005909669],"category_scores_gemma":[0.0182022,0.0001622882,0.00002853095,0.0002393364,0.0002070875,0.00008553432,0.0000877921,0.0002877442,0.000007510693],"about_ca_system_candidate":false,"about_ca_system_consensus":false,"about_ca_system_score_codex":0.00003019003,"about_ca_system_score_gemma":0.00009085215,"about_ca_topic_candidate":false,"about_ca_topic_consensus":false,"about_ca_topic_score_codex":0.0004358881,"about_ca_topic_score_gemma":0.0005068254,"domain_scores_codex":[0.989343,0.009209893,0.0004181237,0.0004671316,0.0002578828,0.0003039984],"domain_scores_gemma":[0.9893093,0.009379169,0.0002301691,0.000415421,0.0004086334,0.0002573175],"domain_codex":null,"domain_gemma":null,"domain_candidate":null,"domain_consensus":null,"study_design_codex":"design_other","study_design_gemma":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_scores_codex":[0.01835709,0.00212701,0.1705639,0.001215816,0.001118427,0.0005804964,0.01330955,0.0002155939,0.05633018,0.3119271,0.01092433,0.4133305],"study_design_scores_gemma":[0.003883353,0.002714211,0.3432477,0.0002784492,0.0002958052,0.000315784,0.000970434,0.01000698,0.002359222,0.634145,0.0009142943,0.0008688581],"study_design_candidate":"theoretical_or_conceptual","study_design_consensus":null,"genre_codex":"methods","genre_gemma":"methods","genre_scores_codex":[0.1385518,0.0001389148,0.8598936,0.0001035608,0.0004896322,0.0002266531,0.00004577337,0.00007230747,0.0004777627],"genre_scores_gemma":[0.05529381,0.00001772873,0.9440192,0.0000680559,0.0001021906,0.00001961889,0.00002836277,0.00003477458,0.0004162898],"genre_candidate":"methods","genre_consensus":"methods","teacher_disagreement_score":0.4124616,"threshold_uncertainty_score":0.9900679,"prediction_status":"machine_predicted_unvalidated"},"machine_scores":{"provisional":true,"baseline":true,"maturity_gate_passed":false,"score_opus":0.6677220592976109,"score_gpt":0.4530988934963726,"score_spread":0.2146231658012383,"validation_status":"score_only:v0-immature-baseline","note":"Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed). Scores rank; they never assert a category."}}